cap 7 ejercicios1 - 3.17 15.68 8,000 1 2 3 0.25 2.00 23.84...

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ACTIVIDAD A M B Te [( b – a )/6] 2 VARIANZA SE 1-2 17 29 47 30 25 25 30 1 2-3 6 12 24 13 9 9 13 2 VARIANZA 13 2-4 16 19 28 20 4 4 20 3-5 13 16 19 16 1 1 16 3 4-5 2 5 14 6 4 4 6 5-6 2 5 8 5 1 1 5 5 TE= 64 74 ts= 67 TE 64 Z 0.5 z= Una probabilidad de 0,69 Cual es la probabilidad de acabar en TS1=60 FORMULA -0.66666667 a + 4m + b/6 ts=Duración programada del proyecto te=Duraciòn programada del proyecto Z=probabilidad (de cumplir la duración programada) que se encuentra en la tabla estadística A7.2. Existe una probabilidad del 69 % de acabar el proyecto en el TS estudiado o antes que en este caso es 67 DESVIACION ESTANDART DE CADA ACTIVIDAD
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A M B [( b – a )/6] 2 (A+4M+B)/6 Actividad Optimista probable Pesimista TE A 4 7 10 1 7.00 B 2 4 8 1 4.33 C 2 5 8 1 5.00 D 16 19 28 4 20.00 E 6 9 24 9 11.00 F 1 7 13 4 7.00 G 4 10 28 16 12.00 H 2 5 14 4 6.00 72.67 I 5 8 17 4 9.00 J 2 5 8 1 5.00 43 K 17 29 45 21.7777778 29.67 80.67 34 TE= 72.67 51 PROB 0.345 2.67 Z -0.4125685 28 TS=70 70 RC=START,A, C,E,F,H,J,K QUIEREN QUE TENGA UNA PROB POR ENCIMA DEL 95
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[( b – a )/6] 2 (A+4M+B)/6 5,000 2 3 5 0.69444444 3.17 8.34 3,000 3 5 8 1.77777778 5.17 9.34 6,000 4 6 9 2.25 6.17 13.67 2,000 1 2 4 0.44444444 2.17 10.51 4,000 3 4 7 1.36111111 4.33 13.68 7,000 1 2 4 0.44444444 2.17 12.68 4,000 2 3 5 0.69444444
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Unformatted text preview: 3.17 15.68 8,000 1 2 3 0.25 2.00 23.84 6,000 4 6 8 1.77777778 6.00 23 5,000 2 4 7 1.36111111 4.17 19.67 3,000 2 3 6 1 3.33 13.67 19.67 TS2 27 TE 23.00 17.67 TS= 21 2.66145324 14.5 10.51 12.68 Z-0.75146915 PROBABILIDAD = 24% 19.85 15.68 18.3581048 13.51 1.5029383 PROBABILIDAD= 93% 11.34 6.17 9.34 3.17 Actvi±y Precedence Actvi±y Cos± per week ($/week) Duraton (week) Optmistc (a) Mos± likely (m) Pessimistc (b) A-A B A B C A C D B D E C E F D F G D G H G H J B,E J K E,F,H K L J L Act. ID DescripTon Predecessor a m b [( b – a )/6] 2 (A+4M+B)/6 1 Design package None 6 12 24 9 13.00 2 Design product 1 16 19 28 4 20.00 3 Build package 1 4 7 10 1 7.00 4 Secure patent 2 21 30 39 9 30.00 5 Build product 2 17 29 47 25 30.00 6 Paint 3,4,5 4 7 10 1 7.00 7 ±est market 6 13 16 19 1 16.00 te= 86.00 ts= 93 1.1067971811 la probabilidad es es 0,01 84%...
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