Modeling Project 1 Report

Modeling Project 1 Report - Albert Hsia 1. Introduction...

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Albert Hsia Page 1 5/12/2009 1. Introduction Data and Overall Approach: I have acquired various resources and data samples from the websites Dr. Garcia has posted online. I have also read through the United States Census publications, and some information on donating blood from the givelife2.org website, a subsidiary site of RedCross.org. My population sample was drawn from the United States Census Bureau’s website. For my Actual Blood Supply and Actual Transfusion data, I used Dr. Garcia’s “Data and Analysis Blood Supply” Excel Spreadsheet. I acquired my Whole-Blood Outdate Percentage from the NBCU report on Outdated Blood. The percentage of “eligible donors” was mentioned in the healthywomen.org website, and the average amount of blood drawn from a donor was given by the givelife2.org website. My approach was to focus on having the ability to simulate actual data with one main input. It is clear that the correlation between the nation’s population and the nation’s blood supply is not strong enough to help us define a straightforward algorithm. However, if such relationship can be found between the nation’s population and the actual blood supply, then we can create a mathematical model. First, I determined the mathematical relationship between time and the potential blood supply. Then I found the relationship between potential blood supply and the actually blood supply in terms of a constant. If the constant fluctuates, then a regression line would be used to characterize it. Thus, the final equation would be “the product between the potential blood supply and the constant at any given time equals the actually blood supply at any given time.” Assumptions : My model is based on assuming that only whole-blood is collected and recorded in the data spreadsheet. I assumed that my population rises exponentially, though it appears linear. This was done so that mathematical model would be more comprehendible when
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Albert Hsia Page 2 5/12/2009 used to predict actual blood supply ahead of time. I also assumed that no factors would affect population trend. Next, I assumed that percentage of eligible donors stayed consistent from the 1980s to 2004. I am certain about this assumption because the U.S. Census indicated that there was no significant change in the population’s percentage of people between the ages of 18 and 65 for the past 20 years. I also assumed that only each person only contributes one unit of blood per year. This is done to give the bare minimum potentiality of blood supply that seams more realistic. For the transfusion calculation, I assumed that Dr. Garcia’s data was whole-blood only.
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Modeling Project 1 Report - Albert Hsia 1. Introduction...

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