inr - 19.99 4.86 4.47 72 Option E 0.90-0.07 3.75 21.06 5.00...

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Vinze, Lucas 9:30 - Data Set A Mamasita’s Calzone Daily Sales Forecast
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INR-1 A Fall 2007 2 Section A: Introduction The following report details the forecasted sales requested by Francisca Leon for Mamasita’s restaurant. Three different models were used to predict the estimated sales for calzones: a simple exponential smoothing forecast with 5 different alpha levels, a 4 period weighted moving average, and a 3 period weighted moving average. The goal is to choose the most accurate forecast model. Section B: Daily Sales Forecasts Analysis Mamasita’s should base its forecast on Option D of the SES model. As seen in Table 1, Option D uses an Alpha level of 0.75, was chosen based on having the lowest MAD of 3.63 and lowest MAPE of 4.86%, and has a forecast of 72 units. The mean forecasted error is -0.21 units and has a standard deviation of 4.47 units. Alpha: MFE MAD MSE MAPE SDFE Forecast Option A 0.10 -0.41 3.94 23.14 5.32% 4.80 76 Option B 0.25 -0.54 3.92 23.04 5.29% 4.78 74 Option C 0.50 -0.56 3.69 21.03 4.97% 4.56 73 Option D 0.75 -0.21 3.63
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Unformatted text preview: 19.99 4.86% 4.47 72 Option E 0.90-0.07 3.75 21.06 5.00% 4.60 72 WMA Option 1-0.05 3.66 20.43 4.90% 4.53 72 WMA Option 2-0.09 3.67 20.43 4.91% 4.53 72 Data Table 1: Error Measures and Forecast INR-1 A Fall 2007 3 Self-Assessment Table Section Item Max Yours Style and Organization Font, spacing, and margins 3 3 Grammar, spelling, punctuation, and sentence structure 3 3 Organization and professional appearance 5 5 Table 5 5 Total Style and Organization 16 16 Section A: Introduction Purpose description 3 3 Total Section A 3 3 Section B: Daily Sales Forecasts Analysis Simple exponential smoothing forecasts and error measures 10 10 4-period weighted moving average forecasts and error measures 10 10 3-period weighted moving average forecasts and error measures 10 10 “Best” forecast method and Forecasted Daily Demand 3 3 Standard deviation of the forecast error 3 3 Total Section B 36 36 Total for Report 55 55...
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