430_33_powerpoint-slides_chapter-5-demand-forecasting_Ch05Presentation

430_33_powerpoint-slides_chapter-5-demand-forecasting_Ch05Presentation

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Managerial Economics Principles and Worldwide Applications, 7th Edition Dominick Salvatore & Ravikesh Srivastava
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Chapter 5: Demand Forecasting
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Qualitative Forecasts Survey Techniques Planned Plant and Equipment Spending Expected Sales and Inventory Changes Consumers’ Expenditure Plans Opinion Polls Business Executives Sales Force Consumer Intentions
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Time-Series Analysis Secular Trend Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data Cyclical Fluctuations Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction Seasonal Variation Regularly Occurring Fluctuations Irregular or Random Influences
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Trend Projection Linear Trend: S t = S 0 + b t b = Growth per time period Constant Growth Rate S t = S 0 (1 + g) t g = Growth rate Estimation of Growth Rate lnS t = lnS 0 + t ln(1 + g)
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Seasonal Variation Ratio to Trend Method Actual Trend Forecast Ratio = Seasonal Adjustment = Average of Ratios for Each Seasonal Period Adjusted Forecast = Trend Forecast Seasonal Adjustment
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