Chapter 1

Chapter 1 - Chapter 1 Thinking Critically With Psychological Science Hindsight bias is the tendency to believe after learning an outcome that one

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Chapter 1: Thinking Critically With Psychological  Science Hindsight bias      is the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have  foreseen it. It was named by Psychologists Paul Slovic and Baruch Fischhoff. It is also known as the I- knew-it-all-along phenomenon.  Our everyday thinking is limited not only by our after-the-fact common sense, but also by our  human tendency to be overly confident. We tend to think we know more than we do.  Critical thinking      is thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions. Rather, it  examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions.  Psychologists use the scientific method to develop theories. A scientific theory  explains through  an integrated set of principles that organizes and predicts behaviors or events. A good theory does not  just sound appealing. It must produce testable predictions called hypotheses. To check biases,  psychologists report their research with operational definitions of concepts that allow anyone to replicate  their observations. Operational definitions  are statements of the operations used to define research  values. For example, human intelligence may be operationally defined as what an intelligence test  measures.  Description of studies - case study  is an observation technique in which one person is studied in depth on the hope of  revealing universal principles. Case studies can suggest hypotheses for further study. They also show us  what can happen.  - the survey method  looks at many cases in less depth and asks people to report their behavior or 
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This note was uploaded on 04/17/2008 for the course PSYC 103 taught by Professor Woodward during the Spring '08 term at CofC.

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Chapter 1 - Chapter 1 Thinking Critically With Psychological Science Hindsight bias is the tendency to believe after learning an outcome that one

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