Note to Debaters This file includes arguments about oil prices and their impact on economics and stability. It is bi- directional — there are arguments about why high oil prices are good, and why they are bad. Make sure you are making consistent arguments! Links All negative arguments rely on a price reduction link — that is, the negative will argue that by increasing supply of energy (either by drilling for oil or increasing alternative energy) the plan will cause oil prices to fall. This is Econ 101 — increase in supply of a commodity causes the price to fall. Specific links to things like U.S. OCS drilling, wind energy, etc. are in the links section. Importantly, oil is a global market — that means if the U.S. increases supply, the price of oil decreases throughout the globe. There are two primary offensive arguments for the negative (and many other smaller modules). Russia DA The Russian oil disadvantage is a fairly straight-forward disadvantage that will apply to affirmatives that increase access to oil or other energy options. The “story” of the disadvantage can be summarized as following: Russia’s economy is growing and remains healthy due to the high price of oil on world markets today. The collapse of Russia’s economy results in political and economic instability in Russia, instability that endangers the security of Russia’s nuclear weapons to a point where nuclear war becomes a significant possibility. Saudi Backstopping DA This can be read as a separate DA, a case turn, or as a link/internal link booster to the Russia DA. It argues that as an oil exporter, it is in Saudi Arabia’s long term interest for oil prices to be high and for countries to remain dependent on oil. However, Saudi Arabia is willing to take a short term hit in order to make people stay dependent on oil. So, if Saudi Arabia perceives their monopoly to be threatened (either by increased U.S. drilling or a U.S. switch to an alternative) Saudi Arabia will “flood the market” which means they’ll release a lot of extra oil. That will cause oil prices to become *very* low, which both hurts other producing economies (like Russia) and turns the case because it prevents the plan from having a long term impact on the oil market. Other Arguments There are also materials to set up other arguments — other small impact modules, answers to oil shocks, and aff impact turn options.
Oil Prices High
General Oil prices are high and stable — low volatility and balanced forces Fahey 6/12 — Jonathan Fahey, AP Energy Writer, 6-12-14, “For OPEC, the price of oil is just right, for now,” Blue Ridge Now, . The world oil market has set up quite nicely for OPEC.¶ Dramatic changes in oil production around the globe are balancing each other out instead of wreaking havoc. This has helped world oil prices stay high enough to provide OPEC countries with robust income, but not so high that they scare customers away from buying more of their precious product.
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- Summer '19
- Political Economy, Peak oil, Oil prices