4_1_Handout - probability 0.5 means “occurs half the time...

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4.1 Randomness Figure 4.1 toss a coin- can’t predict result in advance (results vary) a regular pattern emerges after many repetitions We call a phenomenon random if individual outcomes are uncertain but there is nonetheless a regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions. “random” does not mean “haphazard” The probability of any outcome of a random phenomenon is the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions.
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Unformatted text preview: probability 0.5 means “occurs half the time in a very large number of trials” the proportion in a small number of tosses can be far from the probability probability describes what happens in very many trials the idea of probability is empirical- we can estimate a real-world probability only by actually observing many trials mathematical probability is an idealization based on imagining what would happen in an indefinitely long series of trials...
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