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climate_societies2

climate_societies2 - Global Climate Change and Societies...

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1 Global Climate Change and Societies It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change. - Charles Darwin Why is there Debate? Good science ALWAYS revisits conclusions as new data is discovered. Reevaluation is expected! satellite data ground-based data Paleoclimate measurements must be made using (mostly) stable isotope ratios of proxies Coral or forams, sediments, pollen, tree rings, ice cores, etc. Some methods more accurate than others – Why is there Debate? 140 foundations funneled $558 million to almost 100 climate denial organizations from 2003 to 2010. American Petroleum Institute had a $6 Million campaign to mislead the public by covertly funding “independent” scientists. BP funded American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) which misrepresented research to US state legislators. ExxonMobil gave more than $75,000 between 2008 and 2010 to secretly support the work of Willie Soon, a contrarian climate researcher at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, who sought to downplay the human influence on global warming. The latest IPCC report 600 authors from 32 countries All countries “sign off” on the conclusions Is this global climate change all our fault? Little Ice Age How are temperatures changing? In NH, the 1983 – 2012 was likely the warmest period of the last 1400 years Warming is unequivocal >150 yrs of direct measurements
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2 How is the system changing? What is causing the change? How much of it is human activity? It is extremely likely that more than 50% of warming since 1951 is GHG and other anthropogenic forcings Is the CO 2 really from fossil fuels? C-12 preferentially used by plants and algae – C-13/C-12 ratio of atmospheric carbon buildup rules out volcanoes or the ocean How reliable are the models? Black line = observations, red line = mean of 14 models, yellow lines = results of climate models Conclusion: while not perfect, models appear to approximate observations well and reflect temperature anomalies Is it all our fault? Black line = observations Conclusion: natural forcing alone cannot account for the observations since 1960!!
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3 Is the T data skewed by cities? What is happening with ice? Sea ice vs. land ice Antarctica sea ice vs.
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