Assignment_1 - MGT 251 Planning and Control MGT 251...

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MGT 251. Planning and Control MGT 251. Planning and Control Assignment 1 Estimating with the PERT-Beta Distribution Back in 1957, the year in which the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) was developed by the US Navy, statisticians developed a simple technique to estimate the amount of time it might take to carry out a task. To use the technique, all one needs is to be able to estimate three parameters: a = the best case duration (fastest), b = the most typical case (mode), and c = the worst case duration (slowest). Given these three parameters, estimators can employ the following formula to estimate the expected amount of time it takes to do a job: Expected time = e(t) = (a + 4b + c)/6 The expected value of time calculated by using this formula turns out to be roughly the mean value of a PERT-Beta distribution: The standard deviation (SD) for this estimate is roughly (c – a)/6. The standard deviation tells us that the true value of an estimate lies within the range of +/- 1 SD 2015 University of Management and Technology 1
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MGT 251. Planning and Control
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