Econ3007_handouts - Plan Economics of Smoking Jrme Adda UCL...

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1 Economics of Smoking Jérôme Adda UCL Plan – Why smoking is a problem. – Why should governments intervene? – Economic analysis of smoking. – Policy responses. – Taxes, cigarettes and smoking intensity – The effect of taxes and bans on passive smoking Why smoking is a problem Diseases caused by tobacco use: Lung cancer Emphysema, bronchitis, etc Stroke (bleeding in the brain) Heart attack and heart disease Narrowing and clogging of arteries Cancers of mouth, throat, larynx, esophagus Other cancers – bladder, kidneys, pancreas Peptic ulcers (stomach bleeding) Respiratory infections and compromise (cough, wheezing etc) Gum disease and tooth loss Low birth weight and SIDS Asthma Ear infections Compromised sexual performance Why smoking is a problem Why does tobacco kill? Cig smoke has > 4,000 chemicals, 43 known carcinogens/harmful substances (tar, cadmium, lead, cyanide, nitrogen oxides, benzo(a)pyrine, carbon monoxide, vinyl chloride, acetaldehyde…) Damages tissues throughout the body, clogs arteries, causes blood clots/bleeding Why smoking is a problem Are some cigarettes better? No such thing as a safe cigarette “light”, “low tar” cigarettes are deceptive – - Manipulation by maker - Compensation by smokers so actual yields not = machine yield 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Adult Per Capita Cigarette Consumption and Major Smoking-and-Health Events -- United States, 1900-1998 1st Surgeon General’s Report Source: USDA; 1986 Surgeon General's Report Great Depression End of WW II Nonsmokers Rights Movement Begins 1st Smoking- Cancer Concern Fairness Doctrine Messages on TV and Radio Federal Cigarette Tax Doubles Master Settlement Agreement Broadcast Ad Ban Marlboro Friday
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2 Smoking Prevalence by Gender and Birth Cohort, US 0 .2 .4 .6 1900 1950 2000 1900 1950 2000 Men Women 1900-1910 1910-1920 1920-1930 1930-1940 1940-1950 1950-1980 Source: NHIS Smoking % Calendar Year Graphs by sex Why smoking is a problem Global Trends in tobacco use 1.1 billion smokers, 80% in low- and middle income countries (1 in 3 adults) • 1.6 billion by 2025 85% of all tobacco used is smoked (cigarettes, bidis, kreteks) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco ) Why smoking is a problem United Kingdom: Current Risks On average, among 1000 20-year-olds who smoke cigarettes regularly: – about 1 will die from homicide – about 6 will die from motor vehicles – about 250 will be killed by smoking in MIDDLE age alone (+ 250 more in OLD age) Why smoking is a problem Smoking is increasing in the developing world Male adult prevalence, 1995 US 28 % (was 61% in 1939) East Asia 61 % Europe, Central Asia 57 % Latin America, Caribb 40 % South Asia 41 % (cigs + bidis) Sub-Saharan Africa 29 % Why smoking is a problem Burden of Tobacco Deaths Shifting World: Annual Tobacco deaths (in millions) 2000 2030 Developed 2 ~3 Developing ~2 ~7 World Total 4 ~10 rhombus6 1 in 2 long-term smokers killed by their addiction rhombus6 1/2 of deaths in middle age (35-69) Tobacco deaths are on the increase in India 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year
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