Forecasting EX

Forecasting EX - September. (c) Use tracking signal to...

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Week 5 Forecasting Question1: Given the weekly demand information and weights, what is the weighted moving average forecast of the 5th period or week? The weights for period t-1, t-2, and t-3 are 0.7, 0.2, and 0.1 individually. Question2 : What are the exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2-5 using a =0.5? Assume F1=D1. Compare the forecast with real demand, what can you say about the setting a=0.5? Question 3: Here are the actual demand for a bicycle manufacturing company (January through September). Your supervisor want to test two forecasting methods to see which one was better over the other. (a) Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average. (b) Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3 to estimate April through
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Unformatted text preview: September. (c) Use tracking signal to decide which model produced the better forecast over six months. Month Actual demand 3-month moving SES (alpha=0.3) 1 110 2 130 3 150 4 170 5 160 6 180 7 140 8 130 9 140 1 Week Demand Forecasting 1 100 2 140 3 190 4 150 5 Week Demand Forecasting 1 100 2 140 3 190 4 150 5 Three-month moving average D F D-F Cumulative Deviation (RSFE) Abs. Dev. Sum of Abs. Dev. MAD* TS=RSFE/MAD 1 110 2 130 3 150 4 170 5 160 6 180 7 140 8 130 9 140 Simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3 D F D-F Cumulative Deviation (RSFE) Abs. Dev. Sum of Abs. Dev. MAD* TS=RSFE/MAD 1 110 2 130 3 150 4 170 5 160 6 180 7 140 8 130 9 140 2...
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This note was uploaded on 04/18/2008 for the course MGBU 3438 taught by Professor Dr.sarahj.wu during the Spring '08 term at Fordham.

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Forecasting EX - September. (c) Use tracking signal to...

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