paradigm - Name Institution Course Date MOST PROBABLE...

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MOST PROBABLE PARADIGM The Words of Estimate Probability paradigm which was put forward by Sherman Kent in which he distinguished between the poets who prefer wordy probabilistic statements from the mathematicians who prefer quantitative odds can be the most probable[Dav122]. The goal of Kent was to set forth the community’s findings in a such an ay as to make clear to the reader what about certain knowledge as well as what is reasoned knowledge, and within this large real of judgment what varying degrees of certitude lie behind each key judgment. This paradigm was not based on what has actually happened but was always given approximate values. The national intelligence council recommended that the paradigm is standardized and then used in combination with an assessment of confidence levels based on the scope and quality of the supporting material. Standardization process included reforms in adding quantitative source reliability and confidence measures to estimate statements, and this was aimed at stopping to use words like ` it is supposed, it is thought that and so on.'
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