Assignment II

Assignment II - Aynsley Merk GEOG 205 Global Change Past...

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Aynsley Merk Student #: 260269151 GEOG 205: Global Change- Past, Present and Future Assignment II Region: Haiti 1. Haiti is considered a tropical biome however; presently the region exhibits a more semi-arid biome (especially in the east where the mountains block the trade winds) due to massive national deforestation. Only 2% of the countries forests still stand which has lead to soil erosion and unstable terrain. 1 Mean temperature varies slightly, 25°C (DJF) and 28°C (JJA) (26.5°C annual) while precipitation fluctuates more dramatically, heavier during the spring/summer ‘wet season’ (JJA: 1.12 mm/day) and lighter during the fall/winter ‘dry season’ (DJF: 0.43 mm/day). The wettest month is May (7.45 mm/day) however the amount of precipitation is dependant on the area. 2 Natural resources such as bauxite, copper, calcium carbonate, gold, marble and hydropower dictate much of the countries industrial activity however Haiti is still heavily dependant on agriculture (though only 30% of the land is cultivatable) exporting coffee, mangoes, sugarcane, rice, corn, sorghum and wood. Eighty percent of Haiti’s 8,706,497 people live under the poverty line which helps explain the deforestation, $1900 GDP (PPP-per capita), and heavy economic base in primary and secondary industries. 3 2. The three climate models all predict a similar outcome for Haiti, increasing temperature and drier summers, but in various degrees. CGCM1: Predicts a more dramatic change in overall temperature (+3.5°C) which is coupled with an increase in precipitation (+0.5mm/day) in the winter months and a decrease (-0.5mm/day) in the summer. In the winter these effects would probably cancel each other out producing no change in soil moisture, however in the summer they amplify each other producing a drier season. CSIRO: Predicts less of a change in temperature (+2.5°C) but a consistent increase in rainfall (+0.5mm/day). In terms of soil moisture I believe these effects would cancel each other deeming no change. HADCM2: Predicts the lower increase in temperature value (+2.5°C) and an increase in precipitation (+0.5mm/day) in the winter which like in the CSIRO cancelled each other (no change in soil moisture). In the summer however the higher temperature value (+3.5°C) and the decrease in precipitation (-0.5mm/day) I expect would yield a drier climate. 3.
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Assignment II - Aynsley Merk GEOG 205 Global Change Past...

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