case10-3 - Case 10-3 Corn Price Forecasting Summary Our organization will need $5 million worth of corns in 2013 To decide how much money we will use

case10-3 - Case 10-3 Corn Price Forecasting Summary Our...

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Case 10-3: Corn Price Forecasting Summary Our organization will need $5 million worth of corns in 2013. To decide how much money we will use to buy now, buy futures or buy in monthly increments, we will use the futures prices on the CBOT. There are three types of corns can be invested in CBOT: #2 Yellow at contract Price, #1 Yellow at a 1.5 cent/bushel premium #3 Yellow at a 1.5 cent/bushel discount. In Oct. 2012, the current market price of corn is 321.63 dollars per ton and next year our organization will need at least 15000 ton of corn for the quoted to hold. We can calculate the weight of corns which worth $5 million: $5000000/$321.63 per ton=15545.81 tons. To have a better understanding of the market prices in 2013, we need to find the trend and a proper reference of corn’s market price. Theoretically, the futures prices can be the guide of future market price on most kind of products, we hope we can find similar correlation on corn. In order to make sure our assumption, we collect the market prices and futures prices of corn from March 2011 to October 2012. We set the futures prices as the independent variable and the market prices as the dependent variable, then using correlation module of SPSS to calculate the correlation between futures prices and market prices. If the correlation between the futures price and the market prices is significantly strong, then we’ll use the SPSS forecasting module to get a function of two variables and by utilizing futures quoted prices in 2013, we can estimate the future market prices. There are also a lot of objective factors that can affect the market prices of corn. For instance: the increasing of starch and alcohol manufacturing; the natural disaster, the demand of pigs, etc. we will consider them as influential factors when we do the forecasting.

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