OMIS 352 class 22 - 7Apr2016 - e.g 1000 points π 3.164...

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IT Project Management OMIS 352 Class 22 – 7 April 2016 Prof. John Pendergrass 1
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Content Monte Carlo simulation Prof. John Pendergrass 2
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Critical Path Method Problem: Task durations are expressed as single point estimates. The model represents a 50% probability of success from the outset. Prof. John Pendergrass 3
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PERT Prof. John Pendergrass 4
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PERT Task Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic A 4 5 12 B 1 1.5 5 C 2 3 4 D 3 4 11 E 2 3 4 F 1.5 2 2.5 G 1.5 3 4.5 H 2.5 3.5 7.5 I 1.5 2 2.5 J 1 2 3 Prof. John Pendergrass 5 A, 6 B, 2 C, 3 D, 5 F, 2 G, 3 E, 3 H, 4 J, 2 I, 2 Start Finish 17
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Prof. John Pendergrass 6 Monte Carlo Relies on repeated random sampling Uses random numbers to simulate values from a probability distribution for each input variable Repeated a number of times (trials) to produce an estimate. The more trials, the greater the confidence.
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Prof. John Pendergrass 7 Monte Carlo example p = Area of circle / Area of square p = πr 2 / (2r) 2 = π/4 π = 4m/n where, m = points in circle n = points in square
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Unformatted text preview: e.g. 1000 points: π 3.164 40,000 points: π 3.143609 • PERT Task Optmistc Mos± Likely Pessimistc A 4 5 12 B 1 1.5 5 C 2 3 4 D 3 4 11 E 2 3 4 F 1.5 2 2.5 G 1.5 3 4.5 H 2.5 3.5 7.5 I 1.5 2 2.5 J 1 2 3 Prof. John Pendergrass 8 Randomly select a number of weeks (half-weeks) for each task and sum the criTcal path. e.g. 11, 3, 2, 4, 2, 1.5, 2, 4.5, 2, 1 11 + 2 + 4.5 + 2 + 1 = 20.5 OpTmisTc = 11 Most Likely = 15.5 PER± = 17 PessimisTc = 56 Prof. John Pendergrass 9 5,000 trials Monte Carlo Prof. John Pendergrass 10 Duraton of 17 weeks has a 26% chance of completon. i.e. There is a 74% chance of ±he projec± exceeding ±he estma±e! (5,000 ±rials) Monte Carlo Monte Carlo Prof. John Pendergrass 11 An 85% chance of completon requires budgetng 21 weeks. Cumulative Distribution Prof. John Pendergrass 12 21 weeks...
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