# BA3202-L1 - BA3202 Actuarial Statistics Course opening...

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BA3203 L1 BA3202 Actuarial Statistics Course opening

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BA3203 L1 CIYU NIE: CALL ME JADE Course material posting on NTUlearn KEY READING!!!!!: ActEd Study Materials - 2014: Subject CT6, The Actuarial Education Company EMAIL: Office: S3-B1-A33 Actuarial Science NTU Jade Nie 2
BA3203 L1 Important to read the study materials Will focus on key concepts during lecture seminar More numerical examples for you to practice More detailed explanations on concepts to help you build deeper understanding More graphical illustrations Key source of exercise questions Actuarial Science NTU Jade Nie 3

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BA3203 L1 Course assessment Components Marks Coursework: Participation 10 Coursework: Mid-term quiz (WEEK 7) 20 Final examination 70 Total 100 Actuarial Science NTU Jade Nie 4
BA3203 L1 Course Roadmap Week no. Topic 1 Decision Theory & Bayesian statistics 2 Loss distributions 3 Reinsurance 4 Credibility & Empirical Bayes Credibility Theory 5 Risk models 6 Ruin Theory 7 Quiz 8 Run-off triangles 9 Generalize linear models 10 Time Series Models 11 Time Series Models 12 Monte Carlo simulation 13 Review Actuarial Science NTU Jade Nie 5

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BA3203 L1 BA3202 Actuarial Statistics Lecture 1: - Decision Theory - Bayesian Statistics
BA3203 L1 Objectives Decision theory 1. Define the 2 player zero sum games. 2. Determine optimum strategies under the theory of games. 3. Explain what is meant by a decision function and a risk function. 4. Apply decision criteria to determine which decision functions are best. Bayesian statistics 1. Use Bayes’ Theorem to calculate simple conditional probabilities. 2. Explain what is meant by a prior distribution, a posterior distribution and a conjugate prior distribution. 3. Derive the posterior distribution for a parameter in simple cases. 4. Explain what is meant by a loss function. 5. Use simple loss functions as Bayesian estimates of parameters. Actuarial Science NTU Jade Nie 7

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BA3203 L1 Decision Theory Actuarial Science NTU Jade Nie 8