ECO1011S Week 3 2015 - Jong Ekonoom van die Jaar Kompetisie...

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2015 Jong Ekonoom van die Jaar Kompetisie Young Economist of the Year Competition
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explore the world of the economist and test your skills at predicting key economic variables choose a team of 2–4 register as soon as possible! do the 4 forecasts : 14 Aug, 21 Aug,11 Sept & 18 Sept to be submitted by 14:00 ( ) for each forecast write a short motivation maties vs ikeys vs udubs
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forecast and win prizes maties vs ikeys vs udubs 1 st R12 000 & trophy 2 nd R5 000 3 rd R4 000 4 th – 10 th Certificates for the Top Ten teams Medals for the Top Team from each University
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"In a classic study some years ago, the Economist magazine found that refuse collectors were consistently the best forecasters in the UK. This may be due to the fact that refuse collectors can easily tell whether times are good or bad by what people throw away. In that respect they are far more ‘hands on’ than either fund managers or economists” do I need ‘inside info’?
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Variables Submission date First submission Rand/USA $ exchange rate on 21 August 2015 at 12:00 14 August 2015 at 14h00 Rand/Euro exchange rate on 21 August 2015 at 12:00 Year-on-year CPI inflation for July 2015 Second submission Rand/USA $ exchange rate on 28 August 2015 at 12:00 21 August 2015 at 14h00 Rand/Euro exchange rate on 28 August 2015 at 12:00 Year-on-year PPI inflation for July 2015 Real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2015, expressed on an annualised rate Third submission Rand/USA $ exchange rate on 18 September 2015 at 12:00 11 September 2015 at 14h00 Rand/Euro exchange rate on 18 September 2015 at 12:00 Dollar Gold price per ounce on 18 September 2015 Brent crude oil dollar price per barrel on 18 September 2015 Fourth submission Rand/USA $ exchange rate on 25 September 2015 at 12:00 18 September 2015 at 14h00 Rand/Euro exchange rate on 25 September 2015 at 12:00 Repo rate to be announced on 23 September 2015 Year-on-year CPI inflation for August 2015 Year-on-year PPI inflation for August 2015
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OR
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but where do I start? maties vs ikeys vs udubs
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but where do I start? get ‘hands on’… maties vs ikeys vs udubs
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register now: details on Vula maties vs ikeys vs udubs
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ECO1011S: Macroeconomics I Week 3 Economics Growth, Unemployment & Inflation Readings: M&F 22 M&F 21.1 M&F 20.1 - 20.3 Leigh Neethling [email protected] First six weeks of term: Rm 3.12 Leslie Social Science Building, thereafter Room 4.09 School of Economics Office hours Tuesday 10-11 Wed 10-11
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The week ahead Measurement of economic growth Business cycles Sources of economic growth Causes of low growth Unemployment 1 2 Inflation 1 2
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Definition of Economic growth M&F 22 Annual rate of increase in total production Measured in real terms Real GDP growth Real GDP growth per capita Positive economic growth occurs when total real production grows at a faster rate than the population
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Recall problems associated with GDP Non-market production Unrecorded activity Data revisions Economic welfare Negative externalities Quality of g&s Distribution of income/production
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Calculating economic growth
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The business cycle
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Causes of business cycles Classical economists Keynesian economists Structural or Institutionalist
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Sources of economic growth Supply-side factors Natural resources Labour Capital Entrepreneurship
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