Intro_Evaluating outcomes_2014_1

Intro_Evaluating outcomes_2014_1 - Impact Assessment...

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Impact Assessment Eco5074F Lawrence Edwards 1
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Acknowledgements This module draws on a TIPS Impact Analysis training course developed by Rob Davies and Dirk van Seventer It also draws on material developed by Karl Pauw Finally, it draws on the excellent training material developed by JPAL. 2
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What will you learn in this module? Introduction to Impact analysis models Input-output models, Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) models Very brief introduction to Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models Aim: Put you in a position to critically evaluate other research that utilise such empirical approaches Possibly apply these techniques in your own research; enable you to realise their advantages and disadvantages or limitations; know when they are suitable Thinking carefully about economics, economic impacts and economy-wide interactions 3
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Module content Introduction to Economic Impact Analysis Basic IO and SAM Models Model extensions: A supply-constrained model Introduction to price models Introduction to CGE models Critical evaluation of model applications – presentations 4
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Introduction 1. Concepts 2. Models 3. Introduction to economy-wide modelling 5
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Lecture Reading Breisinger et al. (ch 1 & 2) Sadoulet and de Janvry (1995). Chapter 10 Round (2003b) 6
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We live in world of policy making Interested in how we assess impacts Increase in minimum wages for agricultural workers THE new minimum wage for farm workers is R105 a day: R36 more than the previous minimum wage of R69 a day. Took effect 1 March 2013 7
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Politics Economics Economists’ views of policy making Traditional view Economic advice separated from politics Governance Structures (Constitutional Rules) Political Economics Policy Instrument Selection Economic Consequences Restructured Incentives & Market Adjustments Policy Incidence Policy Implementation (Mechanism Design) Distribution of political power From G Rausser and G Roland 2008 Special Interests Versus the Public Interest: The Determination of Policy Instruments http://repositories.cdlib.org/are ucb/1057 D H E C B G F A More modern view I Interests influence economic design More modern view II Governance determines how F affects E More modern view III Political power determines H and F Most modern view Feedback from D to G ‘closes the loop’ 8
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Role of economics Still a role for ‘technical’ analysis to understand What is policy incidence? How do agents respond?
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