HW4Solutions (dragged) 3

# HW4Solutions (dragged) 3 - e.g A study asks what the...

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on the day before, P n = P n - 1 · p + (1 - P n - 1 ) · (1 - p ) = pP n - 1 + 1 - p - P n - 1 + pP n - 1 = (2 p - 1) P n - 1 + (1 - p ) Now, the identity holds for P 0 . Assume by induction that the identity holds for n - 1. We will show that the identity then holds for n and thus holds for all n greater than or equal to 0. P n = (2 p - 1) P n - 1 + (1 - p ) = (2 p - 1) 1 2 + 1 2 (2 p - 1) n - 1 + (1 - p ) = 1 2 (2 p - 1) + 1 2 (2 p - 1) n + 1 2 (2 - 2 p ) = 1 2 + 1 2 (2 p - 1) n Extra Problem 1 Answers will vary. Extra Problem 2 Answers will vary. Some examples of general ways in which availability bias occurs from which specific examples can be generated are Thinking something is more likely when you can recall more examples of it Recency Bias (tsunamis, earthquakes, etc.) Concreteness Error (Statistics vs. Anecdotes) Egocentric Attribution Bias Some examples of general ways in which anchoring bias occurs from which specific ex- amples can be generated are Peoples assessment of one thing is biased by some other spurious number or fact - The new assessment is anchored to the earlier spurious number or fact
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Unformatted text preview: e.g. A study asks what the population of Turkey is in two di ↵ erent ways. In the Frst, the information that the population of Norway is about 5 million is given together with the question. In the second, the information that the population of California is 38 million is given together with the question. The information given regarding the population of Norway or California in±uences test subjects to guess a number which is closer to the given Fgure. e.g. A study asks test subjects to decide if, when buying either a \$70 watch or a \$800 laptop, they would go 2 blocks to Fnd the identical watch for \$40 or the identical laptop for \$770. Most test subjects would go the two blocks to save \$30 on the watch but wouldn’t go two blocks to save \$30 on the laptop. The valuation of the \$30 is anchored to the price of the good they are buying. 4...
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