QTM 6 - Forecasting - Tutorial Data & Solutions

QTM 6 - Forecasting - Tutorial Data & Solutions -...

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Advertising expenditure Total Sales in SUMMARY OUTPUT in Month (£'000) Following Month (£'000) 13 151.6 Regression Statistics 10 100.1 Multiple R 0.92277 21 199.3 R Square 0.851505 21 221.2 Adjusted R Squar 0.802006 13 170.0 Standard Error 20.74264 Observations 5 ANOVA df Regression 1 Residual 3 Total 4 Coefficients Intercept 36.32674 X Variable 1 8.468798 Ad spending in June (£'000)Predicted sales in July (£000's) 18 188.8
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SS MS F ignificance F 7401.56 7401.56 17.20264 0.025463 1290.772 430.2572 8692.332 tandard Erro t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% 33.17616 1.094965 0.353568 -69.25462 141.9081 -69.25462 141.9081 2.041852 4.147607 0.025463 1.970715 14.96688 1.970715 14.96688
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Outlet Total Sales (000's of drinks) Manchester - Arndale 75 21.8 Manchester - Trafford Centre 122 23.3 Preston 69 20.0 Stockport 58 15.1 Oldham 65 17.3 Leeds 88 22 Lancaster 52 12.9 Chester - Cheshire Oaks 73 21.5 Proposed New Stores: Halifax 60 Wigan 77 Blackburn 89 Bradford 130 Huddersfield 67 Predicted Sales for new stores: Predicted Sales (000's of drinks) Halifax 60 17.2 Wigan 77 19.5 Blackburn 89 21.1 Bradford 130 26.7 Huddersfield 67 18.1 Shop Size (m 2 ) Shop Size (m 2 ) Shop Size (m 2 )
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40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 14 16 18 20 22 24 Relationship between shop size and sales Shop Size (m2) Total Sales (000's)
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SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.795001 R Square 0.632026 Adjusted R 0.570697 Standard E 2.444549 Observatio 8 ANOVA df SS MS F ignificance F Regression 1 61.58384 61.58384 10.30551 0.018362 Residual 6 35.85491 5.975818 Total 7 97.43875 Coefficients tandard Erro t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 9.012592 3.30029 2.730848 0.034148 0.937072 17.08811 0.937072 17.08811 Shop Size 0.135879 0.042327 3.210219 0.018362 0.032309 0.23945 0.032309 0.23945
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%
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Quarter & Year iTunes Downloads (m's) Time Period 2007 Q1 0.7 1 2007 Q2 0.7 2 2007 Q3 1 3 2007 Q4 0.9 4 2008 Q1 1.3 5 2008 Q2 1.6 6 2008 Q3 1.4 7 2008 Q4 1.8 8 2009 Q1 2.3 9 2009 Q2 2.4 10 2009 Q3 2.8 11 2009 Q4 3 12 2010 Q1 3.1 13 2010 Q2 3.5 14 2010 Q3 4.2 15 2010 Q4 4.3 16 2011 Q1 4 17 2011 Q2 4.2 18 2011 Q3 4.6 19 2011 Q4 4.3 20 2012 Q1 4.4 21 2012 Q2 5.1 22 2012 Q3 5.4 23 2012 Q4 5.6 24 Forecasts for 2013: Predicted Downloads (m's) Time Period 2013 Q1 5.8 25 2013 Q2 6.0 26 2013 Q3 6.2 27 2013 Q4 6.5 28 Downloa
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SUMMARY Regression Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Standard E Observatio ANOVA Regression Residual Total C Intercept Time Perio 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 UK Trend of iTunes Downloads ads (m's)
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Y OUTPUT n Statistics 0.987338 0.974837 0.973693 0.256863 24 df SS MS F ignificance F 1 56.23347 56.23347 852.2979 4.36E-019 22 1.45153 0.065979 23 57.685 Coefficients tandard Erro t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% 0.26087 0.108229 2.410339 0.024739 0.036416 0.485324 0.036416 0.485324 0.22113 0.007574 29.19414 4.36E-019 0.205422 0.236839 0.205422 0.236839
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Month Price of Cases (£'s) Sales of Cases (000's) October '11 1.59 0.9 November '11 1.49 1.2 December '11 1.29 1.9 January '12 1.59 1.1 Feb '12 1.19 0.9 March '12 1.09 1.2 April '12 1.09 1.5 May '12 0.99 1.9 June '12 1.19 2.1 July '12 1.09 2.2
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  • Spring '16
  • Xin Shi
  • 1971, 1979, 1977, 1982

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