POPM 3240 March 16 - POPM*3240 March 16 Introduction to...

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POPM*3240 March 16 Introduction to Infectious Disease Modeling - Looking at a process at a population level Why are infectious diseases different? - Communicability – a case is also a risk factor - Positive feedback – more cases we have in the population, the more we will get o More opportunities to spread – why its considered a risk factor o If your healthy, you have a risk of developing a disease if your near someone else who is sick - Variety of diseases - Capacity for changes o E.g. influenza changes every year - Why do we vaccinate? o Prevent diseases - Interventions – as individuals we can vaccinate and wash our hands, but what we do as individuals goes back to the population o Influencing how the disease spreads in the population Ebola Outbreak - Zoonotic disease - Sustains human to human transmission - Previously seen in central Africa in small communities - This time around it was in west Africa in a denser population – more easily transmitted - Started off with a low number of cases and around August/September there was a spike o As soon as we get more cases, it continues to rise and we end up with lots of cases Reproductive Number - Number of secondary cases generated per existing case - If you have one infected person, you count the number of people you get sick - 2 different cases o 1 st one – basic reproductive number Introduced into a completely susceptible population When pathogen is introduced, there is no prior immunity – never been seen before, no vaccine, or don’t get immunity after infected Ebola o Use guidelines to determine if we see spread or exponential pattern If less than 1 – disease will be eradicated Less than 1 person is getting infected by you as a sick person If = 1 – the disease is endemic 1
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