MGT 121 Answer Sheet Forecasting - t At 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9...

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t At Naïve Moving Average (3) Moving Average (5) Ft |et|/Yt*100 |et| et^2 Ft |et|/Yt*100 |et| et^2 Ft |et|/Yt*100 |et| 1 500 2 350 500 42.857 150 22500 3 250 350 40.000 100 10000 4 400 250 37.500 150 22500 366.667 8.333 33.333 1111.111 5 450 400 11.111 50 2500 333.333 25.926 116.667 13611.111 6 350 450 28.571 100 10000 366.667 4.762 16.667 277.778 390 11 40 7 200 350 75.000 150 22500 400.000 100.000 200.000 40000.000 360 80 160 8 300 200 33.333 100 10000 333.333 11.111 33.333 1111.111 330 10 30 9 350 300 14.286 50 2500 283.333 19.048 66.667 4444.444 340 3 10 10 200 350 75.000 150 22500 283.333 41.667 83.333 6944.444 330 65 130 11 150 200 33.333 50 2500 283.333 88.889 133.333 17777.778 280 87 130 12 400 150 62.500 250 62500 233.333 41.667 166.667 27777.778 240 40 160 13 550 400 27.273 150 22500 250.000 54.545 300.000 90000.000 280 49 270 14 350 550 57.143 200 40000 366.667 4.762 16.667 277.778 330 6 20 15 250 350 40.000 100 10000 433.333 73.333 183.333 33611.111 330 32 80 16 550 250 54.545 300 90000 383.333 30.303 166.667 27777.778 340 38 210 17 550 550 0.000 0 0 383.333 30.303 166.667 27777.778 420 24 130 18 400 550 37.500 150 22500 450.000 12.500 50.000 2500.000 450 13 50 19 350 400 14.286 50 2500 500.000 42.857 150.000 22500.000 420 20 70 20 600 350 41.667 250 62500 433.333 27.778 166.667 27777.778 420 30 180 21 750 600 20.000 150 22500 450.000 40.000 300.000 90000.000 490 35 260 22 500 750 50.000 250 62500 566.667 13.333 66.667 4444.444 530 6 30 23 400 500 25.000 100 10000 616.667 54.167 216.667 46944.444 520 30 120 24 650 400 38.462 250 62500 550.000 15.385 100.000 10000.000 520 20 130 25 ? 650 516.667 580 MAPE 37.4 35.3 31.5 MAD 141.3 130.2 116.3 MSD 25978.3 23650.8
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Weighted Moving Average (0.5, 0.3, 0.2) Weighted Moving Average Single Exponential Smoot et^2 Ft |et|/Yt*100 |et| et^2 Ft |et|/Yt*100 |et| et^2 Ft |et|/Yt*100 |et| 330.000 17.500 70.000 4900.000 345.000 23.333 105.000 11025.000 1600 395.000 12.857 45.000 2025.000 25600 390.000 95.000 190.000 36100.000 900 295.000 1.667 5.000 25.000 100 280.000 20.000 70.000 4900.000 16900 305.000 52.500 105.000 11025.000 16900 265.000 76.667 115.000 13225.000 25600 205.000 48.750 195.000 38025.000 72900 285.000 48.182 265.000 70225.000 400 425.000 21.429 75.000 5625.000 6400 420.000 68.000 170.000 28900.000 44100 340.000 38.182 210.000 44100.000 16900 420.000 23.636 130.000 16900.000 2500 490.000 22.500 90.000 8100.000 4900 475.000 35.714 125.000 15625.000 32400 405.000 32.500 195.000 38025.000 67600 485.000 35.333 265.000 70225.000 900 625.000 25.000 125.000 15625.000 14400 595.000 48.750 195.000 38025.000 16900 500.000 23.077 150.000 22500.000 545.000 36.7 137.9 19363.2 23577.4
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thing et^2
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t At Double Exponential Smoothing (0.20, 0.20) Ft Tt FITt |et|/Yt*100 |et| et^2 1 226 141.846 33.3296703 175.176 2 241 185.341 35.3626374 220.703 3 239 224.763 36.1745055 260.937 4 240 256.550 35.2970198 291.847 5 268 281.477 33.2231504 314.701 6 303 305.360 31.3551289 336.716 7 336 329.972 30.0065065 359.979 8 414 355.183 29.0473484 384.231 9 472 390.184 30.2381279 420.423 10 496 430.738 32.3012265 463.039 11 505 469.631 33.6196562 503.251 12 546 503.601 33.6896138 537.290 13 591 539.032 34.0379953 573.070 14 ? 576.656 34.7551806 611.411 15 ?
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