MGM 315 - 3-31-16 Classwork - 1 4 2 Min Rs R = Min 1 R1 R 2...

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= 25.64 25.64 IS IS + 15.31 + 15.31 LC LC + 18.74 + 18.74 MC MC + 14 + 14 27.62 27.62 IS IS + 18.77 + 18.77 LC LC + 18.43 + 18.43 MC MC + + 5.80 5.80 IS IS + 11.06 + 11.06 LC LC + 6.28 + 6.28 MC MC - - - - 3.13 3.13 IS IS + 4.75 + 4.75 LC LC - - 1.04 1.04 MC MC + + IS IS + + LC LC + + MC MC + + SC SC + + IB IB = = - 4 1 2 4 1 s s R R Min 2 1 4 1 R R Min - R R R R R 4 3 2 1 4 1 9 R
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4.19 4.19 SC SC + 7.88 + 7.88 IB IB = = R R 1 1 + 12.37 + 12.37 SC SC + 9.45 + 9.45 IB IB = = R R 2 2 - 1.92 1.92 SC SC + 10.56 + 10.56 IB IB = = R R 3 3 7.32 7.32 SC SC + 3.31 + 3.31 IB IB = = R R 4 4 = 1 = 1 2 2 2 4 3 2 R R R R R R - - -
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in this example the time period is 9 1) F F 1 = = pm pm F F 2 = ( = ( p + q p + q ( 0.53/ ( 0.53/ m m F F 3 = ( = ( p + q p + q ( 3.47/ ( 3.47/ m m Nonlinear Optimization Problem F t = ( p + q ( C t  1 / m )) ( m …., N E t = F t S t , t = 1, …., where N = number of time pe available E t = forecast error for S t = actual number of multiple of that number such period t 2 1 N t Forecasting Adoption Product 2 7 2 6 2 5 2 4 2 3 2 2 2 1 E E E E E E E Min
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^^ You'd use the cumulative subscri Ex: you'd use month 1 subscriber You don't do that for E(t) for the ***** If it's X(t-1) then you'd use the pervious number in the equation F F 4 = ( = ( p + q p + q ( 7.07/ ( 7.07/ m m F F 5 = ( = ( p + q p + q (11.92/ (11.92/ m m F F 6 = ( = ( p + q p + q (15.36/ (15.36/ m m F F 7 = ( = ( p + q p + q (18.12/ (18.12/ m m F F 8 = ( = ( p + q p + q (19.94/ (19.94/ m m F F 9 = ( = ( p + q p + q (20.87/
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Unformatted text preview: = ( = ( p + q p + q (20.87/ (20.87/ m m )) ( )) ( m m – 0.53) – 0.53) )) ( )) ( m m – 3.47) – 3.47) Formulation C t 1 ), t = 1, , N riods of data time period t f adopters (or a as sales) in time n of a New 2 9 2 8 E E ribers C from the month before rs C for Fnidng ±2 subscribers because it's just S(t) and not S(t-1) )) ( )) ( m m – 7.07) – 7.07) )) ( )) ( m m – 11.92) – 11.92) )) ( )) ( m m – 15.36) – 15.36) )) ( )) ( m m – 18.12) – 18.12) )) ( )) ( m m – 19.94) – 19.94) )) ( )) ( m m – 20.87) – 20.87) Informaton: MonTh ST CT p q m MonTh F MonTh 1 0.53 0.53 0.08344 0.621493 21.2595 1 1.773884 1 2 2.94 3.47 2 2.050841 2 3 3.6 7.07 3 3.28893 3 4 4.85 11.92 objectve 4 4.116681 4 5 3.44 15.36 3.599438 5 4.033775 5 6 2.76 18.12 6 3.141298 6 7 1.82 19.94 7 1.924994 7 8 0.93 20.87 8 0.879258 8 9 0.61 21.48 9 0.270133 9 E 1.243884-0.889159-0.31107-0.733319 0.593775 0.381298 0.104994-0.050742-0.339867...
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  • Spring '16
  • Dr. Chao
  • Time Period, Jaguar Racing, B unit, subscribers, Optimization Problem Form, Min E1 period

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