# 192-220 Multiple Regression 合併版.doc - 192 Multiple...

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192 Multiple Regression193 IntroductionAfter brainstorming for several hours, you and Alice devise a plan to improve yourregression analysis of the staffing problem, to help Leo better predict the Kahana'soccupancy.194-1 The Staffing ProblemGood morning. I hope you had a good night's sleep and have come up with someideas on how to better predict my occupancy.194-2For my part, I slept horribly last night. This bisque lawsuit is taking years off my life.194-3I'm sorry to hear that. I'm afraid we don't have any legal advice to give you. We dohave some ideas about how to imp rove your ability to forecast your hotel'soccupancy.194-4We can do better than explaining 39% of the variation in occupancy as we did withour earlier regression using advance bookings as the independent variable.
194-5Remember when we first arrived, we analyzed the relationship between Kauai'saverage hotel occupancy rates and arrivals on the island? We found a fairly strongcorrelation between occupancy and arrivals: 71%.194-6I took a look at the relationship between arrivals on Kauai and your hotel's occupancynumbers. In the regression of Kahana occupancy versus arrivals, arrivals explain 80%of the variation in occupancy. That's much better than the 39% explained by advancebookings.
194-7Wait a minute. Those numbers add up to more than 100%. It seems like yourregression technique explains more variation than there is!194-8Good observation, Leo. The numbers don't add up. The reason is that there is astatistical relationship between arrivals and advance bookings that we aren't takinginto account when we run the two regressions separately.194-9We intend to find one equation that incorporates the data on both arrivals and advancebookings and takes into account the relationship between them. We'll also investigatethe impact of other factors, such as the business practices of your competitors. Who isyour main competitor in the area?194-10That would be the Hotel Excelsior. Its manager, Knut Steinkalt, is a real cutthroat.He's always offering special promotions that undercut my room prices.194-11Fortunately, the Excelsior, though very luxurious, is not nearly as inviting as theKahana. That place feels like an undertaker's parlor! I've been able to keep ahead ofold Knut by offering a better product.194-12We'll study the Excelsior's promotions, and see if they've had a significant influenceon the Kahana's occupancy.194-13Thanks. Let me know as soon as you have some results. I have to warn you, though, Imay be out: I'm going see my lawyers in Honolulu this week to discuss Mr. Pitt'sbisque lawsuit. What a mess!195-1 Introducing Multiple RegressionMost management problems are too complex to be completely described by theinteractions between only two variables,” Alice tells you. Incorporating multipleindependent variables can give managers a more accurate mathematical representationof their business.”

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Term
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