IE255_Lecture-week1

IE255_Lecture-week1 - IE 255 Probability for Industrial...

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IE 255 Probability for Industrial Engineers Aybek Korugan Copyright © 2007 Bogazici University Department of IE All rights reserved. Introduction to Probability Theory Introduction Sets and Events Rules of Counting
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IE 255 Probability for Industrial Engineers Dr. Aybek Korugan Copyright © 2007 Bogazici University Department of IE All rights reserved. Introduction Modeling and Probability Understanding the mechanisms of nature Deterministic view: Aristotle, Descartes, Pascal, . .. Heavenly Bodies: Galilei, Newton. .. (Deterministic Models) “Why does a glass full of water evaporate in room temperature?” Mechanics of Gasses: Thompson, Rutherford. .. (Statistical Models) Mechanics of Light: Einstein, Planck, Bohr, Heisenberg. .. Probabilistic Models and the Probabilistic View! ‘...that He would choose to play dice with the world. .. is something that I cannot believe for a single moment.’
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IE 255 Probability for Industrial Engineers Dr. Aybek Korugan Copyright © 2007 Bogazici University Department of IE All rights reserved. Introduction Introduction Two main views: Probabilistic outcomes due to lack of knowledge Probabilistic outcomes are inherent in nature. Understanding the Nature of Human Beings Insurance: Life, Property etc. . Gambling: Pascal, Fermat,. .. Not only understanding but also making decisions.
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IE 255 Probability for Industrial Engineers Dr. Aybek Korugan Copyright © 2007 Bogazici University Department of IE All rights reserved. Introduction Either way an IE has to deal with uncertainty in modeling systems and providing decision support. Why “support”? Because it takes the blame away from the model.
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IE 255 Probability for Industrial Engineers Dr. Aybek Korugan Copyright © 2007 Bogazici University Department of IE All rights reserved. Introduction Typical IE problems: A beverage manufacturer has to predict the demand over a time period to buy supplies. A supplier in Far East (say LG) ships parts to Manisa (Vestel). When does it arrive? Number of parts waiting to be processed in front of a machine in a production facility ( delays, setup times, breakdowns. ..) Number of products of a certain type a facility produces in a day, week, month etc. . Number of a good quality products in the total products in a day, week, month The number of parking spots needed for a shopping center or a “Residence”
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IE 255 Probability for Industrial Engineers Dr. Aybek Korugan Copyright © 2007 Bogazici University Department of IE All rights reserved. Introduction If the exact value is unknown the characteristics of the values can be found by Probability Theory P {Time to travel from Far East to Manisa < 10 days} E [Time of travel from Far East to Manisa] A Mathematical structure is needed “Is probability mathematics or science?” Dr. Mathew Sands “Everybody believes in the exponential law of errors: The experimenters, because they think it can be proved by mathematics; the mathematicians because they think it has been established by observation.” M. Lippman (French Physicist)
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IE255_Lecture-week1 - IE 255 Probability for Industrial...

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