09.19 - Future Fuel Scenario 1500 Alternative Energy...

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1 Future Fuel Scenario 1000 1500 Surprise Geothermal Solar Biomass es Proposed by Shell 1880 1860 500 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Wind Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil &NGL Coal Trad. Bio. Exajoule Alternative Energy Skepticism •Alternative energy sources seem promising, but currently they provide only a tiny fraction of our energy. They will need to be scaled-up by factors of 10 100 10-100! •Alternative energy sources are all extremely land-intensive; land-use conflicts will arise - food vs. energy. Alternative Energy Skepticism •There will inevitably be serious unforeseen problems associated with this unprecedented level of scale-up. •People assume that new technology will reduce costs of alternative energy. However, most of these technologies are mature. Clicker Question Increased demand for oil in the future is likely to result in decreasing oil prices. A: True B: False
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2 What about cost? Price comes comes from matching supply to demand http://www.netmba.com/econ/micro/supply-demand/ Oil Supply and Demand Hypothetical Future Fuel Supply and Demand Price 150 200 2004 2030 2050 Quantity (million barrels / day) 70 80 110 90 120 100 0 100 50 The End of Cheap Energy? Over hundreds of millions of years, enough fossil fuels formed to power human civilization cheaply for 100-150 years; that time is nearly gone. Other energy sources are available, but none may ever be as convenient or as inexpensive Once the ever be as convenient or as inexpensive. Once the easily-accessible fossil fuels are gone, energy costs will be at least twice as high forever. This will have a profound effect on every sector of our economy.
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This note was uploaded on 02/26/2008 for the course CHEN 1000 taught by Professor Degrazia,j during the Fall '04 term at Colorado.

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09.19 - Future Fuel Scenario 1500 Alternative Energy...

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