Solutions - Forecasting

# Solutions - Forecasting - Chapter 4 Internet Homework...

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Chapter 4 Internet Homework Problems 4.50 Registration numbers for an accounting seminar over the past 10 weeks are shown below: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Registrations 22 21 25 27 35 29 33 37 41 37 a) Starting with week 2 and ending with week 11, forecast registrations using the naive forecasting method. b) Starting with week 3 and ending with week 11, forecast registration using a two-week moving average. c) Starting with week 5 and ending with week 11, forecast registrations using a four-week moving average. d) Plot the original data and the three forecasts on the same graph. Which forecast smoothes the data the most? Which forecast responds to change the best? e) Do exponential smoothing with α = 0.1, 0.5, and 0.8. Compare the three and compare them with the previous ones you’ve used in a-c. What can you say about the differences? Which one would you choose? See Forecasting spreadsheet on Blackboard/classnotes 4.51 Given the following data, use exponential smoothing ( α = 0.2) to develop a demand forecast. Assume the forecast for the initial period is 5. Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 Demand 7 9 5 9 13 8 See Forecasting Spreadsheet on Blackboard 4.52 Calculate (a) MAD and (b) MSE for the following forecast versus actual sales figures: Forecast 100 110 120 130 Actual 95 108 123 130 MAD = 2.5 MSE = 9.5 MAPE = 0.2 4.53 Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Larry Armstrong Supply Co. over the past 13 months are shown below: Month Jan. Feb. March Apri l May June July Sales (in thousands) 11 14 16 10 15 17 11 Month Aug . Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Sales (in thousands) 14 17 12 14 16 11 a) Using a moving average with 3 periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for next February. a. 13.67

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## This homework help was uploaded on 04/20/2008 for the course MSOM 3101 taught by Professor Levi during the Spring '08 term at Temple.

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Solutions - Forecasting - Chapter 4 Internet Homework...

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