Math 218
Quiz 2
1/29/09
Show Your Work!!!
1.
If it rains, there is an 80% chance that you will get wet.
The weather man said there
was a 40% chance of rain today.
A fortune cookie told you that there was a 60%
chance that you would get wet today.
Assuming the fortune cookie was correct,
a)
Are the events “get wet” and “rain” independent? Why or why not?
No,
P(“get wet”  “rain”) =
.8,
but P(“get wet”) =
.6
, if these events were
independent, then
these would be equal, but they are not, so they are not
independent.
b)
What is the probability that it rains today and you get wet?
P(“rain” and “get wet”) = P(“rain”)*P(“get wet”  “rain”) =
(.4)*(.8) =
.32
2.
A company uses three different assembly lines – A
1
, A
2
, A
3
– to manufacture a
particular component.
Of those manufactured by line A
1
, 5% need rework to remedy a
defect, where as 8% of A
2
’s components need rework and 10% of A
3
’s need rework.
Suppose that 50% of all components are produced by line A
1
, 30% are produced by line A
2
,
and 20% come from line A
3
.
a)
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 Spring '06
 Haskell
 Math, Probability, weather, 5%, Zagreb, Rain, 8%, Fortune cookie

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