Study guide course part 3 - <Model Inputs>(1 AcTvity DuraTons(2 Project Network A B C D Best(a 3 3 3 3 Likely(m 4 4 4 4 Worst(b 5 5 5 5(InstrucTo <Model

# Study guide course part 3 - <Model Inputs>(1 AcTvity...

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<Model Inputs> (1) Activity Durations (2) Project Network A B C D Best (a) 3 3 3 3 Likely (m) 4 4 4 4 Worst (b) 5 5 5 5 (Instruction <Model Outputs> Press F9 to regenerate samples (1) Project Du Average S.D (2) Probabilit A-B-D A-C-D total prob Probability[random duration < m] A B C D 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 (1) Generating random numbers in [0,1] (2) Sample a duration for each activity (3) Identify A B C D A B C D A-B-D Scenario 1 0.27 0.78 0.08 0.20 3.74 4.33 3.39 3.63 11.69 Scenario 2 0.73 0.65 0.60 0.43 4.27 4.16 4.11 3.93 12.36 Scenario 3 0.90 0.69 0.98 0.27 4.55 4.21 4.80 3.73 12.50 Scenario 4 0.34 0.82 0.99 0.42 3.83 4.41 4.86 3.92 12.15 Scenario 5 0.01 0.44 0.01 0.67 3.12 3.94 3.13 4.19 11.25 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Activity D Duration
Scenario 6 0.30 0.71 0.06 0.25 3.77 4.24 3.36 3.70 11.71 Scenario 7 0.81 0.06 0.68 0.72 4.39 3.36 4.20 4.25 11.99 Scenario 8 0.77 0.23 0.68 0.40 4.32 3.68 4.20 3.90 11.90 Scenario 9 0.38 0.60 0.26 0.61 3.88 4.10 3.72 4.11 12.09 Scenario 10 0.09 0.01 0.56 0.15 3.43 3.16 4.06 3.56 10.15 Scenario 11 0.91 0.60 0.11 0.27 4.59 4.11 3.47 3.73 12.42 Scenario 12 0.85 0.37 0.59 0.91 4.45 3.86 4.10 4.56 12.87 Scenario 13 0.48 0.94 0.58 0.08 3.98 4.65 4.08 3.40 12.03 Scenario 14 0.24 0.75 0.12 0.20 3.69 4.29 3.48 3.63 11.61 Scenario 15 0.80 0.36 0.17 0.41 4.37 3.85 3.58 3.91 12.13 Scenario 16 0.51 0.71 0.77 0.22 4.01 4.23 4.33 3.66 11.90 Scenario 17 0.95 0.54 0.53 0.97 4.69 4.04 4.03 4.77 13.50 Scenario 18 0.88 0.95 0.16 0.43 4.51 4.68 3.56 3.93 13.13 Scenario 19 0.70 0.06 0.23 0.53 4.23 3.35 3.68 4.03 11.61 Scenario 20 0.03 0.63 0.35 0.34 3.25 4.14 3.84 3.82 11.21 Scenario 21 0.47 0.62 0.96 0.66 3.97 4.12 4.71 4.18 12.27 Scenario 22 0.81 0.95 0.58 0.02 4.39 4.67 4.08 3.21 12.27 Scenario 23 0.60 0.85 0.72 0.38 4.10 4.45 4.25 3.88 12.43 Scenario 24 0.92 0.22 0.06 0.46 4.59 3.66 3.36 3.96 12.22 Scenario 25 0.88 0.55 0.51 0.24 4.50 4.05 4.01 3.69 12.24 Scenario 26 0.85 0.82 0.16 0.43 4.45 4.39 3.57 3.92 12.77 Scenario 27 0.59 0.17 0.16 0.45 4.09 3.58 3.57 3.95 11.63 Scenario 28 0.72 0.78 0.23 0.95 4.25 4.33 3.69 4.68 13.26 Scenario 29 0.31 1.00 0.88 0.95 3.78 4.99 4.50 4.68 13.45 Scenario 30 0.42 0.50 0.70 0.85 3.91 4.00 4.23 4.45 12.36 Scenario 31 0.11 0.48 0.19 0.81 3.47 3.98 3.62 4.39 11.84 Scenario 32 0.93 0.56 0.53 0.65 4.64 4.06 4.03 4.16 12.86 Scenario 33 0.29 0.29 0.38 0.14 3.77 3.76 3.87 3.53 11.06 Scenario 34 0.82 0.26 0.09 0.62 4.40 3.72 3.43 4.13 12.25 Scenario 35 0.81 0.64 0.19 0.56 4.39 4.15 3.61 4.07 12.61 Scenario 36 0.41 0.22 0.67 0.87 3.91 3.67 4.19 4.49 12.06 Scenario 37 0.32 0.56 0.60 0.40 3.80 4.06 4.10 3.89 11.76 Scenario 38 0.03 0.68 0.56 0.59 3.23 4.20 4.06 4.09 11.52 Scenario 39 0.98 0.79 0.80 0.24 4.81 4.35 4.36 3.70 12.86 Scenario 40 0.69 0.36 0.85 0.39 4.22 3.85 4.44 3.88 11.95
Scenario 41 0.38 0.11 0.47 0.96 3.88 3.47 3.97 4.73 12.07 Scenario 42 0.81 0.85 0.50 0.84 4.38 4.45 4.00 4.44 13.27 Scenario 43 0.85 0.71 0.59 0.07 4.45 4.24 4.09 3.38 12.08 Scenario 44 0.13 0.76 1.00 0.33 3.51 4.31 4.90 3.81 11.64 Scenario 45 0.96 0.10 0.05 0.89 4.74 3.44 3.33 4.53 12.70 Scenario 46 0.95 0.54 0.46 0.70 4.68 4.04 3.96 4.22 12.95 Scenario 47 0.52 0.60 0.39 0.96 4.02 4.10 3.88 4.71 12.83 Scenario 48 0.90 0.17 0.56 0.38 4.56 3.59 4.07 3.87 12.02 Scenario 49 0.71 0.51 0.19 0.92 4.23 4.01 3.62 4.59 12.84 Scenario 50 0.72 0.93 0.86 0.18 4.25 4.63 4.48 3.60 12.48 Scenario 51 0.41 0.61 0.47 0.43 3.90 4.12 3.96 3.93 11.95 Scenario 52 0.57 0.71 0.16 0.99 4.07 4.24 3.57 4.86 13.17 Scenario 53 0.07 0.94 0.19 0.36 3.37 4.65 3.62 3.84 11.87 Scenario 54 0.12 0.01 0.36 0.41 3.49 3.13 3.85 3.91 10.53 Scenario 55 0.65 0.94 0.87 0.35 4.17 4.65 4.49 3.84 12.66 Scenario 56 0.79 0.62 0.33 0.48 4.35 4.12 3.82 3.98 12.45 Scenario 57 0.27 0.87 0.33 0.63 3.74 4.50 3.82 4.14 12.38 Scenario 58 0.96 0.41 0.33 0.82 4.71 3.91 3.82 4.40 13.02 Scenario 59 0.74 0.70 0.27 0.67 4.28 4.23 3.74 4.18 12.69

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