Lec13_F03_mine - CLASS#13 EXPECTED VALUE MODELS II I A...

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CLASS #13: EXPECTED VALUE MODELS II I Review A Desiderata 1 Explain, Predict, Understand 2 Theory-Oriented, Theory-Directed 3 Use the Scientific Method a Observation b Hypothesis c Experiment d Law e Theory 4 Ask Nature is Hypothesis supported B Questions for Real World: 1 Should I believe in God? 2 Under what conditions with another State be deterred from attacking? 3 Under what conditions will I choose to attend class? 4 Under what conditions will I choose to buy a lottery ticket? 5 Should I vote? C Paradigm
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1 What is it? a Framework b Set of assumptions c Set of instructions about how to answer important questions d Psychological 2 Rational Choice -- Dominant Paradigm a Behavior is a result of choice b Focus on the individual as the basic unit of analysis D Theory – Rational Choice 1 Identify Available Alternatives 2 Identify all possible Outcomes for each alternative 3 Attach Value to Outcomes 4 Quantify uncertainty E Model – Premises of the Argument – formalize the inference process 1 Ockham’s Razor – Try simplest first 2 Model – Decision Tree a Alternatives b Outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive c
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