Poli 150 lecture notes Oct 10

Poli 150 lecture notes Oct 10 - 10/10/07 Current Events...

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10/10/07 Current Events -UK: Prime Minister Gordon Brown announcd that he would remove half of the 5000 British troops in Iraq by spring 2008. -British general election in 2009? -Syria: Nuclear program, w/ help of N. Korea? -Israeli airstrike against Syria in Sept. -How reliable were Israeli intelligence estimates? -How big of a threat? -Pakistan: Gen Musharraf easily won re-election last weekend. -legislation election/parliament voted -opposition boycott and Supreme Court still hasn’t ruled okay for his eligibility (can he be head of Army and Pres. at same time?) -Darfur: Joint UN-African Union peacekeeping force to deploy later this month. -UN officials now say they don’t have enough military helicopters and ground transports. -26,000 troops (to replace AU force (7000) that is small and not well trained) -host country has to approve of peacekeeping force -Sudanese government accepted on the condition that it is predominately African…but resource problems. -fighting among rebel groups -Burma: gov. appoints liaison to meet with DawAung San Suu Kyi (leader of opposition force trying to bring democracy to Burma that is currently under house arrest) -Gen. Than Shive says he’ll meet w/ Suu Kyi if NLD drops demands for democracy Civil and Ethnic War Strategic Leaders (Nye)
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-National or sub national leaders sometimes have political incentives to inflame ethnic tensions. -Ancient enmities lie dormant until a leader evokes them (identities are constructed, not inherent). Leader reminds them of ethnic entities and mobilizes them. -easier to accomplish in authoritarian systems -US view of conflict in Yugoslavia -caused by strategic use of identities by nationalist leaders -prior to early 1990’s, citizens of Yugoslavia identified w/ their locales (urban/rural) or type of employment -leaders (Milosevic) started ethnic tensions by referring to the Croat massacres of Serbs in WWII and blaming Croats/Bosnian Muslims for the Serbs loss of power in the Federation (Economic alliance) -this helped him gain power -Iraq -groups (Sunni/Shia) waging war via urban guerilla tactics also have ties to political parties and leadership. -Sunni minority -Multiple causes? -The more causes, more likely for civil war. Civil War and Foreign Policy -How should the international community respond? -response to self-determination claims (Etzioni, Nye) -When an ethnic community wants to be sovereign, should the international community recognize it as so? -political institutions and power sharing (Fearon) -of the 55 Civil Wars fought for control of a central government, 75% ended w/ decisive victory for one side.
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-power sharing agreements much less common -diff warring factions believe that they can win/they don’t stop fighting Civil War -many attempts, but it often fails w/out outside intervention -“Security Dilemma” concerns on both sides -tend to succeed when neither side believes it can win decisively through violence and when each side is relatively cohesive. -International Intervention
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Poli 150 lecture notes Oct 10 - 10/10/07 Current Events...

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