POLSCI 160 Chapter 3 Notes

POLSCI 160 Chapter 3 Notes - POLSCI 160 Chapter 2 Notes:...

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POLSCI 160 Chapter 2 Notes: Christopher Columbus and International Relations Decision Theory: How an individual weighs alternatives by taking probabilities, the likelihood that different possible outcomes will arise, and utilities, the value the chooser attaches to alternative possible outcomes, into account. Game Theory: Builds on decision theory by providing a means to evaluate how two or more people, interacting with each other although not sharing the same objectives, make choices while mindful of one another’s maneuverings. Game theory is concerned with how people interact strategically with one another, each trying to choose the course of action that is expected to produce his or her best achievable outcome. COLUMBUS’S PROPOSAL, OR FERDINAND AND ISABELLA’S AMBITION Security is sought to minimize risks, whereas satisfaction is pursued to fulfill ambition. Columbus’s journey brought great wealth and power to Spain. Portugal and other nations who rejected had just as good a reason to reject Columbus as Spain had to support him. Hindsight must not provide the basis for judging the merits of a decision made with only the benefit of foresight. FACTORS THAT SHAPE FOREIGN POLICY CHOICES Probability: The chances of success. Calculate the expected cost, weigh it with the expected failure or success, and determine the expected utility of that policy compared with alternatives. Probability of Success or Failure Every single factor of the repercussions of Columbus’s journey needed to be taken accounted for. Many sailors had similar ideas to Columbus and never returned. This showed strong evidence of low probability of success. Policy Costs and political Cost Transaction costs: The actual expenditures. Terms of agreement between Spain and Columbus. Costs arise. Opportunity costs: Alternative uses of resources. They are the forgone alternative uses of valuable resources. When costs exceed benefits, the action becomes unattractive.
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This note was uploaded on 04/22/2008 for the course PSYCH 111 taught by Professor Schreier during the Winter '08 term at University of Michigan.

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POLSCI 160 Chapter 3 Notes - POLSCI 160 Chapter 2 Notes:...

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