Economics 320
Homework 3
Conditional Probabilities:
1.
You are playing poker and 16 cards have been dealt out of one deck.
You are holding two Kings.
a.
What is the probability that the next card is a King?
i.
P(King3  2Kings already dealt) = 2 / 36
2.
A golfer has 12 golf shirts in his closet.
Suppose 9 of these shirts are white and the others blue.
He gets dressed in the dark, so he just grabs a shirt and puts it on.
He plays golf two days in a row
and does not do laundry.
a.
What is the probability that both shirts selected are white?
i.
P(W1) = 9/12 ;
P(W2W1) = 8/11.
ii.
P(W1
∩
W2) = P(W1)P(W2W1) = (9/12)*(8/11) = 0.55
3.
A sample of executives was surveyed about loyalty to their company.
One of the questions was,
“If you were given an offer by another company equal to or slightly better than your present
position, would you remain with the company or take the other position? The responses of 200
executives are listed below.
Length of Service
Loyalty
Less than 1
year (event B1)
15 years
(event B2)
610 years
(event B3)
More than 10
years (event B3)
Total
Would Remain
(event A1)
10
30
5
75
120
Would Not
(event A2)
25
15
10
30
80
Totals
35
45
15
105
200
a.
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 Spring '08
 Martin
 Economics, Conditional Probability, Probability, Probability theory

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