350 cheat cheat test3

350 cheat cheat test3 - Overbooking: Ratio Cost of walking...

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Unformatted text preview: Overbooking: Ratio Cost of walking (Stockout) = A Cost of empty room (overages) = B A / (A+B) = overbooking ratio No Shows Probability .20 1 .20 2 .30 3 .20 4 .10 0 or more = .20+.20 + .30 +.20 + .10 =100% 1 or more = .20+ .30+ .20 + .10 = 80% 2 or more = .30+ .20+ .10 = 60% 3 or more = .20+ .10 = 30% 4 or more = .10 = 10% The same or larger than the overbooking ratio Weighted Moving Avg Most recent (A) 2 nd Most recent (B) 3 rd Most recent (C) Week 3= (week3)A+(week2)B+(week1)C Forecast= Avg week1=Forecast for week 2 Error= Forecast- Demand Simple Moving Avg Week 3 = (week 1+2+3)/3 Week 4 = (week 2+3+4)/3 Error= Forecast Demand Expo Smoothing Week 1= D=A Week 2= (Alpha)(Demand)+(Alpha-1)(Avg Week1) Week 3= (Alpha)(Demand)+(Alpha-1)(Avg Week2) Continue Forecast= Avg week1=Forecast for week 2 Error= Forecast- Demand Forecast W/ Trend Week1 T= (Avg week 4, 5, 6)-(Avg week 1, 2, 3)/3 Week 1 Avg= (avg week 1, 2, 3)- Trend Week2,3..Avg= (Alpha)(Arrival)+(Alpha-1)*(Avg week 1+Trend week1)Week2,3....
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350 cheat cheat test3 - Overbooking: Ratio Cost of walking...

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