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chapter12 - Cognitive Psychology Fourth Edition Robert J...

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Cognitive Psychology, Fourth Edition, Robert J. Sternberg Chapter 12 Chapter 12: Decision Making and Reasoning
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Cognitive Psychology, Fourth Edition, Robert J. Sternberg Chapter 12 Heuristics Influencing Decision Making Representativeness Heuristic Availability Anchoring & adjustment Overconfidence Illusory correlation Hindsight bias
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Cognitive Psychology, Fourth Edition, Robert J. Sternberg Chapter 12 Representativeness Heuristic Commonality between objects of similar appearance is assumed Judge probability of an event based on how it matches a prototype Can be accurate Can also lead to errors Most will overuse representativeness
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Cognitive Psychology, Fourth Edition, Robert J. Sternberg Chapter 12 Stereotypes Generalizations about groups and individual members of that group Prejudicial attitudes towards outgroups emerge early in life and they are virtually inevitable The derogation of outgroup members becomes focal in middle-childhood (however, ingroup favoritism is not inevitably related to outgroup derogation)
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Cognitive Psychology, Fourth Edition, Robert J. Sternberg Chapter 12 Base rate fallacy The base rate fallacy occurs when irrelevant information is used to make a probability judgment, especially when empirical statistics about the probability are available
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Cognitive Psychology, Fourth Edition, Robert J. Sternberg Chapter 12 Base rate fallacy Students were given descriptive information about hypothetical students and asked to estimate their GPA Students tended to ignore relevant statistics about GPA and focus on irrelevant descriptive information that did not have anything to do with school performance
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Cognitive Psychology, Fourth Edition, Robert J. Sternberg Chapter 12 Availability Heuristic Making judgments about the frequency or likelihood of an event based on how easily instances come to mind Actual frequency influences how easily evidence comes to mind but so do other factors Media Vividness
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Cognitive Psychology, Fourth Edition, Robert J. Sternberg Chapter 12 Making Decisions Which are you more afraid of? Flying in an airplane Driving in a car Meyers (2001) “The Air Transport Association reports that 483 passengers were killed in plane crashes from 1995- 1999 (97 per year). During these years, the National Safety Council's Research and Statistics Department tells me, we were 37 times safer per passenger mile in planes than motor vehicles.”
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Cognitive Psychology, Fourth Edition, Robert J. Sternberg Chapter 12 Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic Begin by guessing a first approximation (an anchor) Make adjustments to that number on the basis of additional information Often leads to a reasonable answer Can lead to errors in some cases
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Cognitive Psychology, Fourth Edition, Robert J. Sternberg Chapter 12 Anchoring-and-Adjustment People are influenced by an initial anchor value Anchor value may be unreliable, irrelevant, and adjustment is often insufficient
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Cognitive Psychology, Fourth Edition, Robert J. Sternberg
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