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D._Challenges_to_Solving_Prob - simplest one 1 Pictures...

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Handout D Challenges to Solving Probability Problems There are many things to think about when solving a probability problem, including: Establish the Universe—Sample Space Establish outcomes ( experiments ! sample space) Establish the events in the Universe 1. Define them using words 2. Label them using symbols (e.g., A , B , C ) Answer some questions about the events: 1. Mutually Exclusive? 2. Independent? 3. Symmetric? 4. How are the events connected (e. g., OR, AND, AT LEAST, etc.) and how do the connections translate into mathematics? Decide on a method of solution —frequently, there will be more than one method (choose the
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Unformatted text preview: simplest one) 1. Pictures may (usually) help (e.g., Venn diagram, tree diagram) 2. Additive rules? 3. Multiplicative rules? 4. Conditional rules? 5. Theorem of Total Probability? 6. Bayes’ Rule? Determine all of the probabilities needed to solve the problem. This will require knowing how to count . 1. Multiplication rules? 2. Permutations? 3. Combinations? 4. Know how and when to use the counting methods simultaneously 5. Avoid double counting Does the solution make sense? Look at your answer and ask yourself “What does it mean?” Think, think and think ....
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