Unformatted text preview: PSYCHOLOGY 508 Summer, 2007 Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making MonWedFri Instructor: Phone: Office Hrs: 9:30 11:48 Room: 14 Psychology Bldg Dr. Thomas Nygren Office: 240H Lazenby Hall 2922935 Email: [email protected] M 12:002:00 Other times by appointment. Texts: Hastie, R. & Dawes, R. (2001). Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. Thousand Oaks, CA:Sage. Nygren, T. Psychology 508 Notes for Judgment & Decision Making. Available online on Carmen. Readings. Available online on Carmen. Description: This course will consist of an examination of recent developments in judgment and decision making research. The course will emphasize the examination of models that are descriptive rather than predictive or normative. That is, there will be an emphasis on models and recent empirical studies that attempt to explain cognitive processes associated with likelihood judgment and decision making under conditions of risk, uncertainty, or ambiguity. Although the goal of the course is not necessarily to teach you to become a better decision maker, we will spend some time discussing decision analysis techniques as well. What you will learn will have significant practical as well as interesting theoretical value. As we discuss current research topics we will periodically invite [email protected] decision makers in a number of different fields to either come and talk informally with us or to show us their decision making environment. We will try to answer three questions as we talk about decision making: 1. How do people synthesize information and make decisions? 2. How good are peoples' decisions and cognitions that underlie them? 3. How can peoples' decision behavior be improved? Prerequisites: The course is designed for undergraduates and nonpsychology graduate students. Some exposure to other content areas in psychology is useful but is not necessary. Neither the lecture/discussions nor the text will emphasize mathematical formalisms in J/DM research, but some mathematical models will be examined. Thus, although an extensive background in mathematics and/or statistics will not be required, students need to meet the statistics prerequisite. Evaluation: There will be two inclass exams (30% each). Each student will be expected to EITHER (1) write a final research paper (approximately 10 pages) on some topic of interest in the field of decision making OR (2) give a 10 minute Powerpoint class presentation on a research topic of interest. The paper or talk (20%) may be based on either a literature review of a specific J/DM topic or a short empirical study of your own. Homework and class participation will account for the remaining 20%. Two or three class periods will be set aside at the end of the quarter for students who wish to give a presentation. Order of presentation will be determined by a random drawing. Attendance at these presentations is MANDATORY. Some Important Dates: Friday Monday Wednesday June 29 Onehalf page summary of paper or presentation topic due. Students must commit to doing either a paper or presentation on this date. July 09 One page summary of paper topic due with title and references. July 18 Final paper due for those doing paper option Powerpoint file for those doing a presentation This publication/material is available in alternative formats upon request. Please contact the instructor, Thomas Nygren (2922935) in the Department of Psychology. Students with disabilities are responsible for making their needs known to the instructor, and for seeking available assistance in a timely manner. Academic Misconduct: All students at the Ohio State University are bound by the Code of Student Conduct (see http://oaa.ohiostate.edu/coam/code.html). Violations of the code in this class will be dealt with according to the procedures detailed in that code. Specifically, any alleged cases of misconduct will be referred to the Committee on Academic Misconduct. PSYCHOLOGY 508 Summer, 2007 Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making Class Date 01 Mon Jun 02 Wed 03 Fri 04 Mon 05 Wed 18 20 22 25 27 Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making Description of Topic Introduction. Decision making, and personality. Analytical and intuitive DM. What is risk risktaking? Measuring accuracy. "Deal or No Deal" Measuring accuracy. Experts. Biases. Linear models. Short presentations. Heuristics/biases. Conjunction/disjunction errors. Roulette video. Odds. Errors, base rates, and Bayes Rule. Horse race betting. Inclass Exam # 1 Rational Models of DM: EU, SEU, Bedrock principles. Measuring utility risk H&D 12 th No class, July 4 holiday. H&D 1 H&D 3,4 H&D 5,6,8 H&D 9 06 Fri 29 07 Mon Jul 02 08 Wed 09 Fri 10 Mon 11 Wed 12 Fri 13 Mon 14 Wed 04 06 09 11 13 16 18 MAUT Decision analysis: Measuring utility riskless situations Models of how we really make decisions. Prospect theory. Reference point. The "endowment effect, and framing. Mood, and stress. EBA models. Inclass Exam # 2 Student Presentations. Student Presentations. Papers/Powerpoints due. H&D 12,2 H&D 10,13 H&D 11, 14 TENTATIVE READINGS All additional readings will be available on Carmen for you to access. Tentative Readings for Exam # 1 Week 12: H & D Chapters 1,3,4,5,6,8,9 Carmen Plous, S. Chapter 19. Overconfidence. Carmen Why experts often disagree. Carmen Lawson, Timothy. Conditional probability and Bayes Theorem. Carmen Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality Tentative Readings for Exam # 2 Week 34: H & D Chapters 12, 2(2.22.6),10,13,11,14 Carmen Schwartz, B. The Tyranny of Choice. Carmen Plous, S. Chapter 21. Behavioral Traps. Carmen Mann, L. Stress, Affect, and Risk taking.. Carmen Klein, G. The effect of acute stressors on decision making. Carmen Plous, S. Chapter 17. Social Influences. There will be one major writing or presentation assignment for this course. Possible topics are listed in the first packet of notes of your Carmen web notes. You will note that there are many possible topics listed to choose from. THESE ARE ONLY SUGGESTED TOPICS YOU MAY CHOOSE ANY OTHER TOPIC IN J/DM OF INTEREST TO YOU. Don't feel as though you must choose one of these. New topics in judgment and decision making are always welcome. Paper Infornation: For those choosing the paper option, the paper can be of one of the two forms described below. In either case it should be: 1. A minimum of 8 typewritten or computergenerated (double spaced) pages including references, tables, figures, etc., but not including title and abstract 2. Written in APA format with a title page, a short 100 word or less abstract, the body of the paper, a reference list, and any tables or figures, Literature Review One possibility is that the paper takes the form of a review of literature related to some area of decision making that interests you. It could take the form of an historical development of a body of literature in which you summarize work as it has progressed over the last 10, 20, or even 30 or more years. It could also be a review of only very recent work from the 1980's and 1990's. Finally, it could be a critical review of the work of just a single researcher (e.g., Wallsten) or a pair of researchers (Kahneman and Tversky). If one of these forms is of interest to you, you might want to look at recent issues of Psychological Review or Psychological Bulletin to see examples of review type articles. Empirical Study A second possibility is to do a small decision making study. The study would by necessity have to be somewhat simple (e.g., only two groups or treatment conditions). Data analyses also would not need or have to be very extensive. That is, simple correlations, ttests, ANOVAs, etc. would probably be sufficient. You could get your subjects from friends and associates or by using volunteers in the class. You could collect your data in lab if it did not require much time (say 15 minutes). Some examples might be to look at the effect of some variable on risktaking or lossaversion, personality correlates of decision making, age differences, gambling experience, and gender differences. Other examples include looking at such things as the effects of framing, presentation modes, response modes (numerical vs. verbal probabilities), time constraints, and ambiguous or incomplete information on decision making. If you were to do this kind of paper I would allow two people to work together on the project. Data collection and analysis could be done jointly. Each person would, however, be expected to write his or her own paper independently. Presentation Infornation: For those choosing the presentation option, the presentation can also be of one of the two forms described above either a literature review or a description of an empirical study of your own. In either case it should be: 1. presented and submitted as a Microsoft Powerpoint file. 2. be an approximately 1012 minute class presentation on the topic of interest. Examples of Powerpoint presentations from a previous class will be available shortly on the website. ...
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- Fall '08
- Decision Making, Carmen, Carmen Plous, Psychology of Judgment