DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION|PLANNING SERVICEForecasting Tool for Key Performance IndicatorPrepared by: Robert John P. Gonzales (SEPS: PPD-PS)User GuideI.The Need to ForecastForecast is an essential step in planning and organizational management. It aids indecision making, and serves as a basis for actions to be taken in any givensituations. Forecasting can also develop systems and processes making itcontinuous, effective and efficient. Forecasting allows organizations to makedetailed analysis of the future. Since planning requires the prediction of futureevents as accurately as possible, the forecasting method itself should be scientificand empirical.This tool was developed to provide a statistical analysis of the historical data,identifying its trend and relative changes to determine future values of theidentifiedKey Performance Indicatorset according to DepEd standards.II. The Forecast ToolThe Forecast tool generates forecasted values for the next six years starting fromthe indicated base year. It is designed to provide a scientific basis for the forecastedvalues using theLinear Method. Below are the definitions and functions ofrespective cells that contains information about the user and the forecasted values.CellsContainsDefinitionRegionList of Regions in the Philippines.There are currently 18 Regions in thePhilippinesData Set toForecastKey Performance Indicators.The KPIs that needs to be forecastedBase YearStarting year for forecast.Usually the current year, but anyother year can be entered for researchpurposes (ie. Trend Analysis, HistoricalData, etc.)School YearContains the list of inclusiveschool years 29 years before thebase year.Inclusive school years that areindicative of pertinent data forforecasting. This list is auto-generatedbased on the base year entered.Input DataContains the raw data to beencoded.The raw data encoded are thedeterminants of the KPIs to beforecasted.Time Index/IndexIndex for the observation.Indexes the figure listed in the cell asincluded in the time series.ForecastYearsYears to generate forecastedvalues on.Six years projection of figures. This listis also auto-generated.ForecastValuesThe forecasted values aspredicted by the Linear Method.Figures are in percentage becauseKPIs are Rates.MeanSquaredErrorAn accuracy indicator for theforecast.An indicator whether the forecastedvalue is far from the actual value.StandardAnother Accuracy indicator fora measure of variation for the raw
