app19_fin_regs

app19_fin_regs - Application Example 19(Linear Regression...

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Application Example 19 (Linear Regression) EL NINO AND FLOW OF THE NILE RIVER The El Nino phenomenon has significant impacts on the global distribution of weather and on the flow of most tropical rivers. Consider the data in Table 1 on the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean in degree Centigrade (an index of El Nino) and the annual flow of the Nile river in cubic kilometers for the period 1972 – 1995. Year Temperature Flow 1972 -1.1 113 1973 -0.8 83 1974 -1.3 121 1975 -1.3 111 1976 0.2 96 1977 1.7 70 1978 -0.5 134 1979 -0.7 124 1980 0.31 97 1981 -0.2 92 1982 -0.7 89 1983 -0.4 105 1984 0.6 87 1985 0.5 93 1986 -1.1 91 1987 -0.3 113 1988 1.3 68 1989 -1.2 92 1990 -0.7 110 1991 -0.2 102 1992 -1.2 124 1993 -0.9 99 1994 -0.5 126 1995 0.7 117 Table 1. Anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean and Annual Flow of the Nile River
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A question of great theoretical and practical interest is whether the El Nino anomaly affects the atmospheric circulation over the African Continent. One way to check this hypothesis is to determine whether there is a statistically significant relationship between the temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean, X, and the annual flow of the Nile River, Y. In what follows, we first fit a simple linear regression between X and Y and then make a formal hypothesis test of the significance of the regression (the regression is said to be
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app19_fin_regs - Application Example 19(Linear Regression...

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