app3_fedra

App3_fedra - Application Example 3(Bayes Theorem EXTRA-TERRESTRIAL LIFE AND THE DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS There is much controversy and uncertainty on

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Application Example 3 (Bayes’ Theorem) EXTRA-TERRESTRIAL LIFE AND THE DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS There is much controversy and uncertainty on whether there ever was life on planet Fedra. To reduce uncertainty, an unmanned experiment is planned. The experiment consists of sending an automatic lab to the surface of Fedra. The lab would conduct chemical and biological tests to reveal whether or not life ever existed on that planet. It is recognized, however, that the experiment may not provide definitive information on the existence of life, due to possible malfunctioning of the testing equipment or the communication system, or the fact that evidence of life may not be present at the locations and depth below the surface accessible by the lab. Let A and B be the events A = “there was life on Fedra” B = “lab says ‘there was life on Fedra’” (1) and denote by A c and B c their complements. For a certain design of the mission (equipment, type of tests, communication system, etc.), NASA experts evaluate the performance characteristics of the experiment to be as follows. • If there ever was life on Fedra, the probability that the lab will detect it and correctly report the finding is P[B|A] = 0.5. Hence, P[B c |A] = 0.5;
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This note was uploaded on 02/27/2008 for the course PTE 461 taught by Professor Donhill during the Fall '07 term at USC.

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App3_fedra - Application Example 3(Bayes Theorem EXTRA-TERRESTRIAL LIFE AND THE DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS There is much controversy and uncertainty on

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