OM HW6 - 2195.5 548.4 493.56 2414.8 Week Deman Forecast...

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Homework 6: Forecasting 1 a) alpha = 2 / (N + 1) 2 / (15+1) 2 / 16 0.13 b) .2 = 2 / (N+1) N+1 = 2 / .2 N+1 = 10 N = 9 2 Ft = (Lt + Tt)It-N 1 2 3 4 1 23,000 27,000 18,000 9,000 19,250 2 19,000 24,000 15,000 19,333 alpha delta y 1 23,000 0.1 0.2 0.3 20500 -500 1.15 2 27,000 1.4 3 18,000 0.95 4 9,000 19,250 0.5 5 19,000 6 24,000 7 15,000 8 9,635 19,333 20.83 19,250 0.5 (19333-19250) / 4 last mean 3 a,b) Week Silver Red Deviation Deviation 1 1903 2009 2 2111 1808 1903.0 208.0 2009.0 201 3 1805 1999 1911.3 106.3 2001.0 1.96 4 2010 1778 1907.1 102.9 2000.9 222.88 5 2222 1567 1911.2 310.8 1992.0 424.97 6 2435 1799 1923.6 511.4 1975.0 175.97 7 2113 1665 1944.1 168.9 1967.9 302.93 8 2348 1438 1950.8 397.2 1955.8 517.81 9 2555 1589 1966.7 588.3 1935.1 346.1 10 1990.2 1921.3 299.2 274.2 MAD MAD c) minimum maximum size 90th percentile Demand Range Silver: 1691.0 2289.5 598.5 538.61 2528.9 Demand Range Red: 1647.1
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Unformatted text preview: 2195.5 548.4 493.56 2414.8 Week Deman Forecast Deviation 1 3912 2 3919 3912 7 3 3804 3912.28 108.28 4 3788 3907.95 119.95 5 3789 3903.15 114.15 6 4234 3898.58 335.42 7 3778 3912 134 8 3786 3906.64 120.64 9 4144 3901.82 242.18 10 3911.5 147.7 MAD Quarter Mean Trend Estimator Level Estimator Seasonal Estimator Forecasted Silver Forecasted Red 90th percent certainty stocking Homework 6: Forecasting d) minimum maximum size 90th percentile difference Demand Range: 3763.8 4059.21 295.41 265.86 4177.37 4943.7-766.3 766 less cameras need to be stocked 90th percent certainty stocking sum of part C cameras Homework 6: Forecasting Homework 6: Forecasting d...
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OM HW6 - 2195.5 548.4 493.56 2414.8 Week Deman Forecast...

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