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Data_A_F07 - Operating Days per year Simple Exponential...

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Operating Days per year 360 day Simple Exponential Smoothing: Alpha values Option A 0.10 Option B 0.25 Option C 0.50 Option D 0.75 Option E 0.90 Option 1: Weighted Moving Average time t-1 0.70 time t-2 0.20 time t-3 0.07 time t-4 0.03 1.00 Option 2: Weighted Moving Average time t-1 0.7 time t-2 0.2 time t-3 0.1 1.00
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Alpha = 0.75 Exponential Smoothing Period Demand 1 77 77 2 77 77 0 0 0 0.00% 3 77 77 0 0 0 0.00% 4 83 77 6 6 36 7.23% 5 79 82 -3 3 9 3.80% 6 74 80 -6 6 36 8.11% 7 74 76 -2 2 4 2.70% 8 75 75 0 0 0 0.00% 9 72 75 -3 3 9 4.17% 10 74 73 1 1 1 1.35% 11 75 74 1 1 1 1.33% 12 73 75 -2 2 4 2.74% 13 75 74 1 1 1 1.33% 14 80 75 5 5 25 6.25% 15 77 79 -2 2 4 2.60% 16 84 78 6 6 36 7.14% 17 84 83 1 1 1 1.19% 18 72 84 -12 12 144 16.67% 19 77 75 2 2 4 2.60% 20 73 77 -4 4 16 5.48% 21 67 74 -7 7 49 10.45% 22 69 69 0 0 0 0.00% 23 71 69 2 2 4 2.82% 24 77 71 6 6 36 7.79% 25 77 76 1 1 1 1.30% 26 74 77 -3 3 9 4.05% 27 75 75 0 0 0 0.00% 28 83 75 8 8 64 9.64% 29 75 81 -6 6 36 8.00% 30 81 77 4 4 16 4.94% 31 79 80 -1 1 1 1.27% 32 71 79 -8 8 64 11.27% 33 70 73 -3 3 9 4.29% 34 74 71 3 3 9 4.05% 35 72 73 -1 1 1 1.39% 36 69 72 -3 3 9 4.35% 37 76 70 6 6 36 7.89% 38 76 75 1 1 1 1.32% 39 79 76 3 3 9 3.80% 40 81 78 3 3 9 3.70% 41 76 80 -4 4 16 5.26% 42 75 77 -2 2 4 2.67% 43 80 76 4 4 16 5.00% 44 78 79 -1 1 1 1.28% 45 69 78 -9 9 81 13.04% 46 68 71 -3 3 9 4.41% 47 71 69 2 2 4 2.82% Note : Round forecasts to the whole unit! NOTE: Don’t round errors. Forecast (F t ) Error (A t - F t ) Absolute Error | A t - F t | Squared Error (A t - F t ) 2 Standardized Absolute Error |(A t - F t ) ÷ A t |
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48 65 71 -6 6 36 9.23% 49 69 67 2 2 4 2.90% 50 74 69 5 5 25 6.76% 51 73 73 0 0 0 0.00% 52 79 73 6 6 36 7.59% 53 82 78 4 4 16 4.88% 54 74 81 -7 7 49 9.46% 55 84 76 8 8 64 9.52% 56 79 82 -3 3 9 3.80% 57 79 80 -1 1 1 1.27% 58 69 79 -10 10 100 14.49% 59 70 72 -2 2 4 2.86% 60 65 71 -6 6 36 9.23% 61 74 67 7 7 49 9.46% 62 77 72 5 5 25 6.49% 63 75 76 -1 1 1 1.33% 64 74 75 -1 1 1 1.35% 65 78 74 4 4 16 5.13% 66 85 77 8 8 64 9.41% 67 83 83 0 0 0 0.00% 68 74 83 -9 9 81 12.16% 69 79 76 3 3 9 3.80% 70 71 78 -7 7 49 9.86% 71 74 73 1 1 1 1.35% 72 70 74 -4 4 16 5.71% 73 71 71 0 0 0 0.00% 74 69 71 -2 2 4 2.90% 75 74 70 4 4 16 5.41% 76 75 73 2 2 4 2.67% 77 84 75 9 9 81 10.71% 78 77 82 -5 5 25 6.49% 79 76 78 -2 2 4 2.63% 80 81 77 4 4 16 4.94% 81 81 80 1 1 1 1.23% 82 73 81 -8 8 64 10.96% 83 74 75 -1 1 1 1.35% 84 70 74 -4 4 16 5.71% 85 70 71 -1 1 1 1.43% 86 67 70 -3 3 9 4.48% 87 69 68 1 1 1 1.45% 88 70 69 1 1 1 1.43% 89 75 70 5 5 25 6.67% 90 80 74 6 6 36 7.50% 91 77 79 -2 2 4 2.60% 92 84 78 6 6 36 7.14% 93 81 83 -2 2 4 2.47% 94 75 82 -7 7 49 9.33% 95 68 77 -9 9 81 13.24% 96 70 70 0 0 0 0.00% 97 73 70 3 3 9 4.11% 98 75 72 3 3 9 4.00% 99 74 74 0 0 0 0.00% 100 78 74 4 4 16 5.13%
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101 76 77 -1 1 1 1.32% 102 80 76 4 4 16 5.00% 103 83 79 4 4 16 4.82% 104 81 82 -1 1 1 1.23% 105 78 81 -3 3 9 3.85% 106 73 79 -6 6 36 8.22% 107 70 75 -5 5 25 7.14% 108 77 71 6 6 36 7.79% 109 74 76 -2 2 4 2.70% 110 68 75 -7 7 49 10.29% 111 66 70 -4 4 16 6.06% 112 74 67 7 7 49 9.46% 113 77 72 5 5 25 6.49% 114 74 76 -2 2 4 2.70% 115 76 75 1 1 1 1.32% 116 80 76 4 4 16 5.00% 117 81 79 2 2 4 2.47% 118 73 81 -8 8 64 10.96% 119 78 75 3 3 9 3.85% 120 77 77 0 0 0 0.00% 121 68 77 -9 9 81 13.24% 122 68 70 -2 2 4 2.94% 123 72 69 3 3 9 4.17% 124 69 71 -2 2 4 2.90% 125 68 70 -2 2 4 2.94% 126 75 69 6 6 36 8.00% 127 83 74 9 9 81 10.84% 128 77 81 -4 4 16 5.19% 129 85 78 7 7 49 8.24% 130 81 83 -2 2 4 2.47% 131 77 82 -5 5 25 6.49% 132 78 78 0 0 0 0.00% 133 74 78 -4 4 16 5.41% 134 75 75 0 0 0 0.00% 135 75 75 0 0 0 0.00% 136 66 75 -9 9 81 13.64% 137 74 68 6 6 36 8.11% 138 73 73 0 0 0 0.00% 139 81 73 8 8 64 9.88% 140 82 79 3 3 9 3.66% 141 79 81 -2 2 4 2.53% 142 76 80 -4 4 16 5.26% 143 80 77 3 3 9 3.75% 144 71 79 -8 8 64 11.27% 145 68 73 -5 5 25 7.35% 146 69 69 0 0 0 0.00% 147 70 69 1 1 1 1.43% 148 74 70 4 4 16 5.41% 149 76 73 3 3 9 3.95% 150 76 75 1 1 1 1.32% 151 78 76 2 2 4 2.56% 152 74 78 -4 4 16 5.41% 153 78 75 3 3 9 3.85%
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154 78 77 1 1 1 1.28% 155 75 78 -3 3 9 4.00% 156 77 76 1 1 1 1.30% 157 71 77 -6 6 36 8.45% 158 71 73 -2 2 4 2.82% 159 69 72 -3 3 9 4.35% 160 73 70 3 3 9 4.11% 161 72 72 0 0 0 0.00% 162 74 72 2 2 4 2.70% 163 73 74 -1 1 1 1.37% 164 76 73 3 3 9 3.95% 165 83 75 8 8 64 9.64% 166 80 81 -1 1 1 1.25% 167 75 80 -5 5 25 6.67% 168 80 76 4 4 16 5.00% 169 76 79 -3 3 9 3.95% 170 72 77 -5 5 25 6.94% 171 74 73 1 1 1 1.35% 172 68 74 -6 6 36 8.82% 173 72 70 2 2 4 2.78% 174 74 72 2 2 4 2.70% 175 76 74 2 2 4 2.63% 176 80 76 4 4 16 5.00% 177 76 79 -3 3 9 3.95% 178 80 77 3 3 9 3.75% 179 80 79 1 1 1 1.25% 180 81 80 1 1 1 1.23% 181 76 81 -5 5 25 6.58% 182 74 77 -3 3 9 4.05% 183 69 75 -6 6 36 8.70% 184 68 71 -3 3 9 4.41% 185 68 69 -1 1 1 1.47% 186 71 68 3 3 9 4.23% 187 76 70
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