ec-03 - University of Southern California Center for...

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University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering Barry Boehm, USC-CSSE CS 510 and 577a Fall 2007 Value-Based Systems and Software Engineering (VBSSE) and the Incremental Commitment Model (ICM)
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University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering 08/31/2007 ©USC-CSSE 2 VBSSE and ICM: Outline Executing the VBSSE Issues of Scale, Complexity, and Uncertainty The Cone of Uncertainty - I Risk-Driven Incremental Definition: ICM Stage I Buying Information to Reduce Risk Risk-driven incremental development: ICM Stage II Achieving both rapid change and high assurance Multiple views of the ICM Viewpoints and examples Evidence of successful use Implications for system acquisition, career paths
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University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering 08/31/2007 ©USC-CSSE 3 Initial VBSSE Theory: 4+1 Process – With a great deal of concurrency and backtracking Utility Theory Theory W: SCS Win-Win Decision Theory Dependency Theory Control Theory 6a, 7c. State measurement, prediction, correction; Milestone synchronization 5a. Investment analysis, Risk analysis 1. Protagonist goals 3a. Solution exploration 7. Risk, opportunity, change management 5a, 7b. Prototyping 2a. Results Chains 3b, 5a, 7b. Cost/schedule/ performance tradeoffs 2. Identify SCSs 3b, 7a. Solution Analysis 5a, 7b. Option, solution development & analysis 4. SCS expectations management 3. SCS Value Propositions (Win conditions) SCS: Success-Critical Stakeholder 6, 7c. Refine, Execute, Monitor & Control Plans 5. SCS Win-Win Negotiation
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University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering 08/31/2007 ©USC-CSSE 4 The Cone of Uncertainty: I Feasibility Concept of Operation Rqts. Spec. Plans and Rqts. Product Design Product Design Spec. Detail Design Spec. Detail Design Devel. and Test Accepted Software Phases and Milestones Relative Cost Range x 4x 2x 1.25x 1.5x 0.25x 0.5x 0.67x 0.8x 90% confidence limits: - Pessimistic - Optimistic
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University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering 08/31/2007 ©USC-CSSE 5 The Cone of Uncertainty: I Feasibility Concept of Operation Plans and Rqts. Product Design Detail Design Spec. Detail Design Devel. and Test Accepted Software Phases and Milestones Relative Cost Range x 4x 2x 1.25x 1.5x 0.25x 0.5x 0.67x 0.8x 90% confidence limits: - Pessimistic - Optimistic Multi-Pass VBSSE Needed 1-Pass VBSSE Needed New Domain Immature infrastructure Non-Jelled team Familiar Domain Proven infrastructure Well-Jelled team
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University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering 08/31/2007 ©USC-CSSE 6 Example VBSSE Step 5 Negotiation Uncertainties: Sierra Mountainbikes Case Study Agent-based discussion support win condition Uncertain multi-agent coordination feasibility Best-of-breed COTS product interoperability Architectural mismatch uncertainty 1-second response time feasibility Uncertain COTS-product scalability Uncertainties make premature commitment highly risky Better to reduce option space before negotiating details
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