AMG Model - Revenue Forecast Assets Under Management Total...

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Affiliated Managers Revenue Forecast 2010A Assets Under Management Total AUM $ 320,000.00 Revenues Investment Management Services Revenue $ 1,358.20 Operating Expenses Compensation and Related Expenses $ 594.50 Selling, General and Administrative $ 284.60 Intangible Amortization and Impairments $ 60.00 Depreciation and Other Amortization $ 14.10 Other Operating Expenses $ 31.00 Total Expenses $ 984.20 Operating Income $ 374.00 Income from Equity Method Investments $ 77.50 Other Non-Operating (income) and Expenses Investment and Other Income $ (18.40) Interest Expense $ 66.20 Imputed Interest Expense and Contingent Payment Arrangements $ 24.90 Total $ 72.70 Income Before Income Taxes $ 378.80 Income Taxes $ 91.50 Net Income $ 287.30 Net Income (non Contolling Interets) $ (148.70) Net Income (Controlling Interest) $ 138.60 Affiliated Managers Revenue Forecast 2010A Assets Under Management Total AUM $ 320,000.00 AUM Growth Revenues Investment Management Services Revenue 0.42% Operating Expenses Compensation and Related Expenses 44% Selling, General and Administrative 21% Intangible Amortization and Impairments 4% Depreciation and Other Amortization 1% Other Operating Expenses 2% Total Expenses Operating Income Income from Equity Method Investments 6% Other Non-Operating (income) and Expenses Investment and Other Income -1% Interest Expense 5% Imputed Interest Expense and Contingent Payment Arrangements 2%
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Total Income Before Income Taxes Income Taxes 7% Net Income Net Income (non Contolling Interets) -11% Net Income (Controlling Interest)
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s Group 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A $ 327,500.00 $ 431,800.00 $ 537,300.00 $ 620,200.00 $ 611,300.00 $ 1,704.80 $ 1,805.50 $ 2,188.80 $ 2,510.90 $ 2,484.50 $ 718.80 $ 784.70 $ 947.50 $ 1,030.50 $ 1,027.70 $ 350.80 $ 366.90 $ 427.20 $ 485.50 $ 443.80 $ 97.70 $ 200.00 $ 128.20 $ 122.20 $ 115.40 $ 15.00 $ 14.10 $ 14.00 $ 16.90 $ 18.80 $ 36.40 $ 39.40 $ 37.80 $ 40.60 $ 43.80 $ 1,218.70 $ 1,405.10 $ 1,554.70 $ 1,695.70 $ 1,649.50 $ 486.10 $ 400.40 $ 634.10 $ 815.20 $ 835.00 $ 72.70 $ 129.70 $ 307.80 $ 281.70 $ 288.90 $ 5.00 $ (22.00) $ (40.80) $ (23.30) $ (15.30) $ 73.80 $ 83.00 $ 87.30 $ 76.60 $ 88.90 $ 27.30 $ (26.10) $ 31.70 $ 30.10 $ (40.30) $ 106.10 $ 34.90 $ 78.20 $ 83.40 $ 33.30 $ 452.70 $ 495.20 $ 863.70 $ 1,013.50 $ 1,090.60 $ 93.10 $ 83.80 $ 194.10 $ 227.90 $ 256.90 $ 359.60 $ 411.40 $ 669.60 $ 785.60 $ 833.70 $ (194.70) $ (237.40) $ (309.10) $ (333.50) $ 317.70 $ 164.90 $ 174.00 $ 360.50 $ 452.10 $ 1,151.40 s Group 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A $ 327,500.00 $ 431,800.00 $ 537,300.00 $ 620,200.00 $ 611,300.00 102.34% 131.85% 124.43% 115.43% 98.56% 0.52% 0.42% 0.41% 0.40% 0.41% 42% 43% 43% 41% 41% 21% 20% 20% 19% 18% 6% 11% 6% 5% 5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 7% 14% 11% 12% 0% -1% -2% -1% -1% 4% 5% 4% 3% 4% 2% -1% 1% 1% -2%
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5% 5% 9% 9% 10% -11% -13% -14% -13% 13%
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Average Average 114.52% 0.43% 42.52% 19.76% 6.10% 0.79% 1.95% 9.01% -0.95% 4.07% 0.50%
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7.52% -8.36%
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Historical Financials 2013A 2014A 2015A Revenue (000's USD) $ 2,188.80 $ 2,510.90 $ 2,484.50 Pre-tax Operating Income (000's USD) $ (40.80) $ (23.30) $ (15.30) Net Income (000's USD) $ 863.70 $ 1,013.50 $ 1,090.60 Basic EPS $ 6.47 $ 8.21 $ 9.28 Projected Financials 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenue (000's USD) $ 2,821.10 $ 3,025.63 $ 3,244.99 Pre-tax Operating Income (000's USD) $ (10.70) $ (28.68) $ (30.76) Net Income (000's USD) $ 1,021.14 $ 1,112.38 $ 1,193.03 Basic EPS $ 14.14 $ 15.47 $ 16.59 Consensus EPS $ 13.26 $ 15.07
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AMG: US Equity Model Target Stock Price Px/Chg 1D (USD) 163.89 P/B $ 164.73 52 Wk H (04/29/15) 230.63 P/E FY1 $ 168.30 52 Wk L (02/11/16) 115.97 P/E FY2 $ 162.43 YTD Change/% 4.13/2.59% Average $ 165.05 Mkt Cap (USD) 8,848.70M Shrs Out/Float 54.00M/53.50M Cost of Equity Risk Free Rate 2.65% Market Risk Premium 6.00% Beta 1.56 Cost of Equity 12.01% P/B 3.23 ROE 18.90% Eff Tx Rate 23.60%
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Affiliated Managers Group Revenue Forecast 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Assets Under Management Total AUM $ 320,000.00 $ 327,500.00 $ 431,800.00 $ 537,300.00 $ 620,200.00 $ 611,300.00 $ 655,619.25 $ 703,151.65 $ 754,130.14 Revenues Investment Management Services Revenue $ 1,358.20 $ 1,704.80 $ 1,805.50 $ 2,188.80 $ 2,510.90 $ 2,484.50 $ 2,821.10 $ 3,025.63 $ 3,244.99 Operating Expenses Compensation and Related Expenses $ 594.50 $ 718.80 $ 784.70 $ 947.50 $ 1,030.50 $ 1,027.70 $ 1,128.86 $ 1,210.71 $ 1,298.48 Selling, General and Administrative $ 284.60 $ 350.80 $ 366.90 $ 427.20 $ 485.50 $ 443.80 $ 557.49 $ 597.91 $ 641.26 Intangible Amortization and Impairments $ 60.00 $ 97.70 $ 200.00 $ 128.20 $ 122.20 $ 115.40 $ 172.06 $ 184.54 $ 197.91 Depreciation and Other Amortization $ 14.10 $ 15.00 $ 14.10 $ 14.00 $ 16.90 $ 18.80 $ 22.42 $ 24.05 $ 25.79 Other Operating Expenses $ 31.00 $ 36.40 $ 39.40 $ 37.80 $ 40.60 $ 43.80 $ 55.04 $ 59.03 $ 63.31 Total Expenses $ 984.20 $ 1,218.70 $ 1,405.10 $ 1,554.70 $ 1,695.70 $ 1,649.50 $ 1,935.88 $ 2,076.23 $ 2,226.76 Operating Income $ 374.00 $ 486.10 $ 400.40 $ 634.10 $ 815.20 $ 835.00 $ 885.22 $ 949.40 $ 1,018.23 Income from Equity Method Investments $ 77.50 $ 72.70 $ 129.70 $ 307.80 $ 281.70 $ 288.90 $ 254.20 $ 272.63 $ 292.39 Other Non-Operating (income) and Expenses
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