forecasting_assignment_answers_Solutions

forecasting_assignment_answers_Solutions - Q1 A B2 C D E...

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Q1 Forecast for October 2006 Forecast BIAS MAD MSE A Naïve 702 13 134 24,784 B2 Moving Average (four periods) 636 34 172 40,342 C Weighted moving average (0.7, 0.3) 724.5 20 133 24,800 D Weighted moving average (0.5, 0.3, 0.2) 702.7 25 140 29,041 E Exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.65) 698.8 19 129 24,760 Q2 Best method A If biis is the criteria: Naïve method B if MAD is the criteria: Exponential smoothing C if MSE is the criteria: Exponential smoothing Q3 Best weights A Best alpha = 0.670 B W1 = 1; W2 = 0, W3 = 0 Q4 Regression Regression Equation Revenue = -2585.98 + 79.04 (Room Nights) The model is very good. Adjusted R-Square is 0.928 which means 92.8% of variation is reve Prediction for 675 room-nights sold $50,766.02
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enue is explained by Room Nights sold
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Data Page 3 Month Room-Nights Sold Revenue 2005 January 307 $20,492 February 257 $19,275 March 290 $23,925 April 323 $23,983 May 425 $30,919 June 589 $35,782 July 791 $67,037 August 643 $52,565 September 454 $29,624 October 725 $53,288 November 547 $41,846 December 605 $40,384 2006 January 275 $22,481 February 209 $16,616 March 304 $20,064 April 312 $26,910 May 469 $32,361 June 548 $34,935 July 734 $56,702 August 658 $46,389 September 420 $29,295 October 690 $57,443 November 493 $39,563 December 584 $45,990 2007 January 316 $21,804 February 251 $15,437 March 338 $22,815 April 370 $23,865 May 472 $31,506 June 593 $49,812 July 777 $61,189 August 702 $45,806
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Page 4 Month Naïve A-F ABS(A-F) A-F)^2 2005 January 307 February 257 307 -50 50 2500 March 290 257 33 33 1089 April 323 290 33 33 1089 May 425 323 102 102 10404 June 589 425 164 164 26896 July 791 589 202 202 40804 August 643 791 -148 148 21904 September 454 643 -189 189 35721 October 725 454 271 271 73441 November 547 725 -178 178 31684 December 605 547 58 58 3364 2006 January 275 605 -330 330 108900 February 209 275 -66 66 4356 March 304 209 95 95 9025 April 312 304 8 8 64 May 469 312 157 157 24649 June 548 469 79 79 6241 July 734 548 186 186 34596 August 658 734 -76 76 5776 September 420 658 -238 238 56644 October 690 420 270 270 72900 November 493 690 -197 197 38809 December 584 493 91 91 8281 2007 January 316 584 -268 268 71824 February 251 316 -65 65 4225 March 338 251 87 87 7569 April 370 338 32 32 1024 May 472 370 102 102 10404 June 593 472 121 121 14641 July 777 593 184 184 33856 August 702 777 -75 75 5625 September 702 BIAS MAD MSE 13 134
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forecasting_assignment_answers_Solutions - Q1 A B2 C D E...

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