Stimulus_or_Depression___Feb_9_09

Stimulus_or_Depression___Feb_9_09 - Stimulus or Depression?...

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Stimulus or Depression? Steven Kyle Cornell University February 2009
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2008 $431 - 50% 2007 $859 - 5% 2006 $907 - 4% 2005 $942 - 6% 2004 $1,004 + 3% 2003 $976 - 6% 2002 $1,037 -1% 2001 $1,052 + 9% 2000 $968 + 3% 1999 $939 + 1% 1998 $928 + 34% Christmas Spending Plans Year Average Spending Percent Change American Research Group Survey Nov10-13; Tel. Interview with 1,100 Adults
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What Will 2009 Look Like? Still a way to go down in real estate Commercial real estate just starting House prices still need to fall Stimulus won’t kick in right away Still isn’t passed Further lags after that Monetary Policy all used up Consumer Confidence still at rock bottom
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Will it Turn Around? IF we get a big enough stimulus then yes Eventually, ratios will return to historical levels See for example Autos Household debt
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GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports C is down – People have rediscovered savings I is down – Why invest if nobody is
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This note was uploaded on 03/03/2009 for the course AEM 2300 taught by Professor Lee,d.r. during the Spring '06 term at Cornell University (Engineering School).

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Stimulus_or_Depression___Feb_9_09 - Stimulus or Depression?...

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