Lecture_11___Fertility_transitions

Lecture_11___Fertility_transitions - October 6 2008...

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October 6, 2008 Fertility Transitions and Family Planning
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Fertility Trends: U.S. Level or quantum of fertility (e.g., number of births, average family size, etc.) How big were your families? (Does it matter?) Timing or pace of fertility (e.g., age at first birth, birth intervals, etc.) How old was your mother at the time or your birth? (Does it matter?)
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What explains the Baby Boom and Baby Bust? Easterlin’s Relative Income Hypothesis Intermediate variable framework? SAPs
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Cohort Fertility – Cohort Completed Fertility Rate Hypothetical age-specific fertility rates: Year Age of Women at birth 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 36-39 40-44 Age specific Fertility Rate per thousand 0 20 60 160 110 40 10 5 15 70 160 110 40 10 10 10 55 165 110 40 10 15 5 50 160 115 40 10 20 5 45 150 115 50 10 25 5 45 145 120 45 15 30 5 45 145 125 50 15 35 5 45 145 125 55 20 40 5 45 145 125 55 25 45 5 45 145 125 55 25
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Cohort Fertility – Cohort Completed Fertility Rate Hypothetical age-specific fertility rates: Year Age of Women at birth 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 36-39 40-44 Age specific Fertility Rate per thousand 0 20 60 160 110 40 10 5 15 70 160 110 40 10 10 10 55 165 110 40 10 15 5 50 160 115 40 10 20 5 45 150 115 50 10 25 5 45 145 120 45 15 30 5 45 145 125 50 15 35 5 45 145 125 55 20 40 5 45 145 125 55 25 45 5 45 145 125 55 25 Inter-cohort comparisons? How?
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Baby boom Women born in 1915 (age 25 in 1940): Cohort completed fertility (or children ever born) = 2,429 births per 1,000 women Women born in 1930 (age 25 in 1955): Cohort completed fertility (or children ever born) = 3,153 births per 1,000 women
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Timing (or Tempo) of Fertility
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Comparing Populations: Use the Total Fertility Rate (or average family size)
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Total (Period) Fertility Rate (TFR) This is the rate most referred to and it is called either the Total Fertility Rate or the Total Period Fertility Rate. Based on age-specific fertility rates In order to calculate this rate you need more data: HYPOTHETICAL COUNTRY For a period of time (one year) Age No. births in one year
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