1.16 - 1.16.2009 Political Science 104 How do we know Moore...

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1.16.2009 Political Science 104 How do we know Moore is right? 1. Causality requires association a. There are formal requirements to establish and show a cause and effect relationship b. Can use a 2X2 to establish i. Example: Why do gun violence rates vary? 2. Interpersonal trust a. Measured on World Values Survey i. (Get handout from Wednesday on website) b. Yule’s Q: Measure of association i. (aXd)-(bXc)/(aXd)+(bXc)= Q ii. Only good for 2X2 tables A B C D iii. Trust: Gun homicide rates and trust (high/low) within the country 5 1 0 1 3 1. Q=.20 iv. Inequality 1 7 1 1 2
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1. Q=.94 v. Best way to judge is to compare it against other variables c. Summary of Yule’s Q i. Runs from +1 to 0 to -1 ii. A positive or negative 1 is a perfect association iii. Zero is no association
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Unformatted text preview: iv. A Yule’s Q of positive or negative 1. 0-.2 weak association 2. .2-.6 moderate 3. .6-.99 strong 3. Research Assignment 1 a. 2 pages, plus comparison table b. Think a lot about how to phrase conclusion i. c. Why? i. Why do you think rates of gun violence vary? ii. Use essay from Essentials (go to bullet points to find properties of models) iii. How do we measure magnitude? Is it small? Large? Big difference or little? d. Comparison? i. What countries would verify your explanation? What is your conclusion? 1. Conclusion must be strongest part. But don’t get cocky. Don’t state that the independent variable is the only cause...
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