READINGS TEST 2 - forecasting

READINGS TEST 2- - READINGS TEST 2 Forecasting(concept evaluation Pg 229-232 How to use ATAR to build forecasts Understand Logic of the formula and

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–3. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
READINGS TEST 2 Forecasting (concept evaluation) Pg. 229-232: How to use ATAR to build forecasts.  Understand Logic of the formula and how  they fit together First estimate of the percentage of potential purchasers assumes 100% awareness and  availability (must be adjusted downward) Using ATAR o Can be used to construct a sales or profit forecast o Used largely on consumer packaged goods, where firms have lots of new  product experience on which to develop model parameters and to calibrate the  raw percentages they get from consumers o Basis of many of the simulated test markets o Pseudo sale market testing methods (typically when the physical product is  available for the consumer to take home and try) o Post trial data are then collected from the consumer and used as input to the  ATAr model o Can still be applied using data from other sources and even assumptions o First time product trial might be estimated using the purchase intention method o Accuracy of forecasts obtained depends on the validity of the measures o Must also consider data availability and data precision MS=T x R x AW x AV     T=long run trial rate (percentage of buyers who ultimately try the product at least  once) R=long run repeat purchase rate (share of purchases of the product among those  who tried the product) Obtained by analogy to similar products for which data is available Also calculated using a switching model (estimates long run repeat purchase  rate) Rs is proportion of customers who will switch to the new product when  available Rr is those that will repeat AW = percent awareness AV = percent availability Pg. 233: Product diffusion (no formula)
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Diffusion of innovation – refers to the process by which an innovation is spread within a  market, over time and over categories of adopters Individuals in the earlier adopter categories influence the purchase behaviors of later  ones, through word of mouth and other influence processes Rate of diffusion is hard to assess, especially at early stages Very important to get an estimate of the number of innovators and early adopters
Background image of page 2
Image of page 3
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

This homework help was uploaded on 03/18/2009 for the course MKTG 4250 taught by Professor Kornish,la during the Fall '07 term at Colorado.

Page1 / 5

READINGS TEST 2- - READINGS TEST 2 Forecasting(concept evaluation Pg 229-232 How to use ATAR to build forecasts Understand Logic of the formula and

This preview shows document pages 1 - 3. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online