14 - Abramowitz Time for Change Model - Challenging for...

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Abramowitz “Time for Change” Model - Challenging for candidate of same party as current president to win after more than 1 re-election. Evaluating the predictions…against what? - Relative to 3 benchmarks: 1) November/Pre-election day polls 2) Post-Convention/Labor day polls 3) Random split/mean party vote Presidential Primaries and Nominations - History of primaries and nominations: 1) Primaries started after the turn of the century 2) Progressive reforms meant to democratize nomination process 3) 1912 (12 states) Teddy Roosevelt tried to take Republican nomination WH Taft 4) Still seeing brokered conventions into 1952 5) Republican delegates chose Eisenhower over Taft 6) Dem delegates chose Stevenson over Kefauver 7) 1960 Kennedy defeats Humphrey in real primary battles 8) 1968 was turning point for democratic process 9) LBJ pulls out after barely winning NH over McCarthy 10) RFK enters primaries, killed before Chicago convention though leading primaries 11) Humphrey hopes to win nomination at the convention, which he does
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This note was uploaded on 03/18/2009 for the course PSCI 3021 taught by Professor Esadler during the Fall '08 term at Colorado.

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14 - Abramowitz Time for Change Model - Challenging for...

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